tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-268929143373225662024-03-12T19:50:23.224-04:00Veep CritiqueWhat good is a VP anyway?
Started about my PhD on the vice presidency - but when I finished I realized, whenever you talk about the vice presidency, your are really talking about the presidency.Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.comBlogger136125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-62056072700612175092020-08-11T15:08:00.002-04:002020-08-11T15:08:34.802-04:00Advice for Joe Biden's 2020 running mate in USA Today<p><b style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="color: #0e75e0; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 16pt;">USA Today OPINION</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><b><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 26pt;"><a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/08/02/biden-vice-president-running-mate-history-advice-column/5547954002/">'The vice presidency is a good gig': Here's some advice for Joe Biden's 2020 running mate</a><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><b><span style="color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Arial; font-size: 8pt;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><b><span style="color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Arial;">Aaron Mannes, Opinion contributor</span></b><span style="color: #878787; font-family: Arial;"> Published 5:02 a.m. ET Aug. 2, 2020</span><span style="color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><i style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14pt;">You didn’t become vice president just for future opportunities. You want to make a difference now. There’s good news and bad news.</span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">Congratulations on being selected as Joe Biden’s running mate. If the polls hold, you’ll be the first female vice president of the United States. (Don’t take too much credit for the win, or blame if you lose. <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/04/election-2016-vice-president-selection-matters-less-than-you-think-213805"><span style="color: #197ade; text-decoration-line: none;">Research</span></a> shows that the vice presidential candidate doesn’t make much difference.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">The vice presidency is a good gig. It comes with a plane, a nice house and lots of high-profile appearances. It provides a good chance of becoming president. Of the 48 vice presidents, 14 have become president (15, if Biden is elected). Again, if Biden is elected then in the past 14 presidential elections, three vice presidents have been elected president (Nixon, Bush and Biden) and two others came very close (Humphrey and Gore).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">But you didn’t become vice president just for future opportunities. You want to make a difference now. There’s good news and bad news. Good news, first.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><b><span style="color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Helvetica;">Good news for the potential next VP<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">In 1976, Democratic presidential nominee Jimmy Carter revolutionized the vice presidency. Historically, the office was mostly the butt of jokes, what historian <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1974/05/is-the-vice-presidency-necessary/305732/"><span style="color: #197ade; text-decoration-line: none;">Arthur Schlesinger, Jr.</span></a> called a constitutional "appendix.” Carter viewed this as waste. The former Georgia governor chose Walter Mondale, a respected Democratic senator from Minnesota, for their personal and political compatibility. This was an innovation in its own right — previous presidential nominees hadn’t given it much thought. Carter ensured his vice president would have access to the president and the White House policy process. This included a weekly private lunch with the president and entrée for the vice president and his staff to White House meetings and paper flow at every level. Most important was giving Mondale a <a href="https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/generic/Leaders_Lecture_Series_Mondale.htm#:~:text=Fritz%20Mondale%20was%20the%20first%20Vice%20President%20to,partner%22%20is%20how%20President%20Carter%20described%20their%20relationship."><span style="color: #197ade; text-decoration-line: none;">West Wing office</span></a>. In the White House things happen on the fly, but unlike his predecessors, Mondale could look in on the national security adviser or chief of staff — whose offices are right next door, or see the president in the Oval Office down the hall.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">These vice presidential perquisites have continued and expanded. Mondale’s chief of staff was also made a member of the White House staff, giving him access to the White House. By 2016, the final full year of Biden’s vice presidency under President Barack Obama, <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-PLUMBOOK-2016/pdf/GPO-PLUMBOOK-2016.pdf"><span style="color: #197ade; text-decoration-line: none;">eight people from his office</span></a> were also on the White House staff.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">Biden, as a two-term vice president, chose you for the ticket because you are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-under-pressure-to-shatter-cement-ceiling-by-naming-a-black-woman-to-be-his-running-mate/2020/07/19/7dfb9dcc-c06f-11ea-9fdd-b7ac6b051dc8_story.html#:~:text=Joe%20Biden%20wants%20to%20be%20%E2%80%98simpatico%E2%80%99%20with%20his,reportedly%20on%20Biden%E2%80%99s%20list%20of%20potential%20running%20mates."><span style="color: #197ade; text-decoration-line: none;">“simpatico.”</span></a> Biden won’t cut you out of the process, like President Richard Nixon did to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/07/why-the-vice-presidency-matters/492128/"><span style="color: #197ade; text-decoration-line: none;">Vice President Spiro Agnew</span></a>, who he despised. You will see the president often and know what’s going on in the White House.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">There’s stuff you should do to keep things this way. Presidents hate leaks. You can give the president unvarnished advice, even disagree with him, but do it privately. Stories of president-vice president disagreements will be bad for both of you. Don’t let your staff leak either. Dan Quayle didn’t have a great hand to play as vice president in President George H.W. Bush’s administration, but his staffers leaking White House dirt didn’t help. And when the president makes a decision, like it or not, publicly support it.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><b><span style="color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Helvetica;">Bad news for Biden's VP candidate<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">Now the bad news: Biden knows how to “president.” The expansion of the vice president’s role has coincided with a string of outsider presidents who came to office with little or no experience in D.C.—governors (and also Obama who had only been in the Senate for four years). They turned to their vice presidents when they faced new issues such as national security, and unfamiliar Washington institutions, like Congress.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">Biden was vice president for eight years and a senator from Delaware for <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/us-politics/joe-biden"><span style="color: #197ade; text-decoration-line: none;">36 years</span></a>. What can you tell him about Congress or world affairs that he won’t already know? Further, Biden has plenty of experienced advisers. Outsider presidents have turned to the experienced staffers of their insider vice presidents. When incoming President Ronald Reagan saw his team needed more Washington experience, he turned to James Baker, campaign manager and close friend of his GOP primary rival-turned-vice president, George H.W. Bush. As White House Chief of Staff the uber-effective Baker played a critical role in making the Reagan Revolution a reality. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">Serving an insider president puts you in a similar position to Dan Quayle, who found the job mostly fundraising and funerals.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">All is not hopeless. One presidential resource is finite: time. Find areas that are important, but the president lacks the time to address. Quayle did useful diplomacy in Latin America and Asia, where the president’s national security team — focused on Europe and the Middle East — didn’t have time. Alternately, the president may have an issue in which he is heavily invested and assigns you to reinforce this commitment. President Bill Clinton was deeply interested in Russia and assigned Vice President Al Gore to oversee a bilateral commission to strengthen those ties. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">Unattached to any bureaucracy and with a unique convening power, vice presidents can be a force multiplier and bring focus to key issues. George H.W. Bush oversaw regulatory reform and a counter-terror task force. Besides several bilateral commissions, Gore ran the reinventing government initiative. Biden managed the stimulus spending for Obama. Biden will probably give you a few such assignments. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">Biden is famously friendly, you’ll get along great with him. But that doesn’t mean that your efforts mesh politically with the White House, which is a big bureaucracy in its own right. Having some of your staffers in senior White House positions would be great, but unlikely. Encourage your staff to get close to their White House counterparts, and consider bringing experienced Biden staffers onto your team.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">Your job is to help the president any way that you can. Everything you know about the president — what he’s worried about, what he needs, what he doesn’t know that he should — can help you help him.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">Congratulations and good luck. We all are wishing you every success — we’re all counting on you.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 12pt;"><i><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial;">Aaron Mannes is a lecturer at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy. He wrote his dissertation on vice presidential influence. Follow him on Twitter: <a href="https://twitter.com/awmannes"><span style="color: #197ade; text-decoration-line: none;">@awmannes</span></a></span></i><span style="color: #262626; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-89829473782208917122019-07-14T16:28:00.000-04:002019-07-15T06:10:21.942-04:00Jessica Jones and Presidential AuthorityHey fans (do I have any?), it's been awhile. I have a day job and I'm trying ... trying... to write a book.<br />
<br />
For the book I'm thinking about what the politics of reconstruction will look like in an age of Creedal Passion. If none of this makes sense to you, <a href="https://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2018/07/july-4th-special-post-reckoning.html">read this</a>. A big part of that is really <i>getting</i> the work of <a href="https://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2010/12/reviewing-presidential-leadership-in.html">Stephen Skowronek on presidential time.</a><br />
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Have you read the links, great, let's move on.<br />
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Central to Skowronek's thesis is that presidents have tremendous power (this responding to Richard Neustadt's great <i>Presidential Power</i>, which argues that presidents are actually quite limited in their power and must bargain to get anything done). The great presidents not only have power, they have authority - they have a warrant to exercise their power. Skowronek argues that this warrant is shaped, as much by the president's actions, as by the time in the political cycle in which they operate.<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibkfm7PukgtrnWiO-9O39SumZ3EpBaeJOuhO2X9EijXJowGZWMBySMxYuCZwA-gByHwuVq6LHwdIWfZmll6YgMkkJMq3cNtMjN22B0crm7mJHxD4P4v8m7TAA7w2ltXadu4tL5cY_Atg/s1600/JessicaJones.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1520" data-original-width="1140" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibkfm7PukgtrnWiO-9O39SumZ3EpBaeJOuhO2X9EijXJowGZWMBySMxYuCZwA-gByHwuVq6LHwdIWfZmll6YgMkkJMq3cNtMjN22B0crm7mJHxD4P4v8m7TAA7w2ltXadu4tL5cY_Atg/s320/JessicaJones.jpg" width="240" /></a><br />
To get my head around all of this, I needed to understand what it means to have power, without authority (with a dayjob in government, I understand the reverse.) It all came together, watching <a href="https://www.netflix.com/title/80002311">Jessica Jones</a> on Netflix. This is a tremendous series based on a Marvel comic book which Netflix has chosen to end after its third season (here's hoping that will change!)<br />
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Jones is a powered individual (there are others) who has enormous strength. I'd guess she is roughly 100 times as strong as an average person. In one scene she casually tosses a full-grown adult into the air and they land twenty-feet away. I figure I could do the same with a lawn chair. She is bullet-resistant, but not bullet-proof. She can definitely be hurt. She lives openly, working as a private eye and she's got an interesting and complex backstory and lots of issues. Just watch the series.<br />
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So she has power. She can wander around town beating up bad guys, breaking into buildings, what have you. She has no warrant to do so. The police get touchy about her exercising her powers and there is a great deal of public suspicion of powered individuals. If she uses her powers in a public way which is not approved, she is seen as a greater threat than the criminals she is fighting.<br />
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She can fight the police, and win, for a time. But she can't fight the entire police force, which can bring to bear some formidable weaponry. Thus she needs to cultivate police support (something that Jones, who is extremely touchy, finds very difficult.) This is a trope in pretty much every story involving a private detective, constantly pressing against and sometimes beyond the boundaries of what the police find acceptable. But a super-powered person has far greater freedom to press against the boundaries. The police do not want to take her on - she can easily break out of prisons - also she can punch people to death. On the other hand, her ability to become the object of public hatred is<br />
much, much greater than a typical P.I.<br />
<br />
As Jessica Jones uses her powers, she starts to accumulate enemies. Eventually those enemies could bring her down. If she can obtain authority to use her powers, support from the police and some modicum of public acceptance, she can at least negate some of this opposition.<br />
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One of Jessica Jones' responses to this challenge is to be a good private investigator. She can get into places others can't (she can jump on top of building for example and break locks.) But she still needs to know what to look for and where. She works hard on these skills so that she can maximize the use of her power.<br />
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I started writing comparisons to recent and current presidents to illustrate all of this further - but why bother. But if you insist on that, maybe <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/02/19/man-who-is-too-weak-occupies-an-office-that-is-too-strong/?utm_term=.18f2588fd58c">read this by Daniel Drezner</a>.Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-37354326901196313162019-02-18T17:00:00.002-05:002019-02-18T17:57:25.395-05:00Presidents Day Special: The Greatest VeepToday is Presidents Day, the day we honor the people who have held our nation's highest office. I'm skeptical of this holiday - not all of them were so great. I preferred honoring the greats with a day. We used to celebrate the birthdays of Washington and Lincoln, and that was enough. We shouldn't add to the list so lightly. Besides I'm not sure there is another president who can join them. Jefferson was undoubtedly a great man - but also a problematic one. Same with FDR. I'm not sure there is another president who really comes close.<br />
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A few years I spent some time considering the question of who was our greatest president - outside of the presidency. That is, who had the most distinguished post-presidency, who performed the greatest public service, the greatest work outside of politics, and the most successful military career. I won't recapitulate my findings, <a href="https://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2016/02/belated-presidents-day-some-lists-of.html">give it a read here</a>.<br />
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But I thought I would do the same this year for vice presidents. Who was our greatest VP? What does that even mean.<br />
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<i>(In the future, I really should do a post about the worst VPs, because we had some real scoundrels. SPOILER ALERT: It's gotta be Spiro Agnew, but there are some really interesting runner-ups. Alexander Hamilton killed a guy. Schuyler Colfax was pretty corrupt. Richard Mentor Johnson spent his time as VP running a tavern.)</i><br />
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<b>VPs who became great presidents</b><br />
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1. Thomas Jefferson<br />
2. Theodore Roosevelt<br />
3. Lyndon Johnson<br />
4. Harry Truman<br />
5. Chester Arthur/Gerald Ford<br />
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Jefferson and Roosevelt are on Mt. Rushmore, they make everyone's list of presidential greats. Johnson and Truman both had pretty big accomplishments in office, which at least balance the wars they stumbled into. I have a soft spot in my heart for Gerald Ford and Chester Arthur. Neither sought the presidency or vice presidency. But when placed in the role, both rose to the occasion and helped heal nation move past a divisive moment.<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-gWGNY05IoqomLaDWGleg4WmODnreouzA6FkSI8U3yn5jCoLYeysBaAwUuU_2sl_M21Aek_aYQCuoTByWK1zkLVCU7HL1g23qf5smp8ONmNENDVURaQVVFKlPkQDC1h9iD29yXjpQ3g/s1600/ChesterArthurPortrait.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="465" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-gWGNY05IoqomLaDWGleg4WmODnreouzA6FkSI8U3yn5jCoLYeysBaAwUuU_2sl_M21Aek_aYQCuoTByWK1zkLVCU7HL1g23qf5smp8ONmNENDVURaQVVFKlPkQDC1h9iD29yXjpQ3g/s320/ChesterArthurPortrait.jpg" width="265" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Chester Arthur - National Portrait Gallery</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Ford's story is well known. Arthur's has some similarities. He was member of the political machine of New York Senator Roscoe Conkling and head of the New York Customs House. This was a huge job when tariffs were the primary source of federal government revenue - and yes, there was ample room for corruption. When Conkling was denied the presidency, Arthur was nominated to the vice presidency in a move by party leaders to reconcile with Conkling's faction. Conkling told Arthur to refuse the nomination, Arthur accepted and the Republican Garfield-Arthur ticket won the 1880 election. In office, Arthur continued to work on behalf of Conkling.<br />
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Garfield was assassinated in July 1881 by Charles Guiteau, who thought he deserved a job in the administration. This was back when federal jobs were patronage positions handed out by the president and the cabinet. When Conkling approached Arthur about how they were going to run things, Arthur rebuffed his patron. Instead, Arthur pressed for Civil Service reform, which had been one of Garfield's causes. As president Arthur was prudent, careful, and generally respected. He was also seriously ill and concealed it. There was nothing in Arthur's background suggesting he would be president or be capable in the position - but when the moment came he served admirably when the United States needed it.<br />
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While these may have been great men - they were not great VPs! Most of them spent little time in that office. Only Jefferson spent a full term as VP, and he spent it as far away from President Adams (his political rival) as possible.<br />
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<b>VPs who carried out great acts of public service</b><br />
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1. Thomas Jefferson<br />
2. Martin Van Buren<br />
3. Joe Biden<br />
4. Hubert Humphrey<br />
5. Dick Cheney<br />
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Jefferson of course wrote the Declaration of Indepence, as well as serving as ambassador to Paris and Secretary of State. Martin Van Buren built the modern Democratic Party. Biden and Humphrey were long-time Senators with lengthy lists of accomplishments. Cheney served as White House chief of staff, was a much admired congressman, and a well respected Secretary of Defense. It is hard to remember that when Cheney was nominated to the vice presidency, the choice was generally lauded.<br />
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Besides Cheney, Van Buren and Biden played significant roles as vice president. This list by the way is off the top of my head. I don't know my 19th century VPs as well as I should, but I'm sure some of them were well respected before taking our nation's "most insignificant office."<br />
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<b>VPs who had tremendous achievements in science, arts, and commerce</b><br />
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1. Thomas Jefferson<br />
2. Teddy Roosevelt<br />
3. Charles Dawes<br />
4. Henry Wallace<br />
5. Levi Morton<br />
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Jefferson was a scientist, philosopher, architect, and founded the University of Virginia. TR was a naturalist, explorer, and historian of some renown. Henry Wallace did important work in agricultural science before serving as FDR's Secretary of Agriculture. Levi Morton was a business giant, after his term as vice president merged his interests with J.P. Morgan.<br />
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Charles Dawes is my favorite. He was a successful businessman, held a range of government posts, won a Nobel Prize for his work on German debt relief after WW1, and wrote <i>Melody in A Major. </i>This last was set to words in 1958 and became the hit Tommy Edwards song, <i>It's All in the Game.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
None of these men were particularly distinguished vice presidents. Dawes main accomplishment was sleeping through a key Senate vote where he was supposed to break the tie. Wallace got into squabbles with members of FDR's cabinet.<br />
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<b>The Greatest Vice President <i>as </i>Vice President</b><br />
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None of the lists so far have much to do with the vice president as the vice president, but rather the individuals who held the office. What can we say of the efforts of vice presidents <i>as vice presidents</i>.<br />
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We could rate the most influential VPs. Cheney is probably top, but the other modern VPs, particularly Gore were pretty important. There were also a few fascinating earlier cases of vice presidential influence. Maybe I'll do another post on this. But I'm thinking about someone who exercised the extremely limited formal role of the vice president as well as possible.<br />
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In many cases, this role is characterized by doing nothing when the nation is in crisis or the president's status is in doubt. Thomas Marshall refrained from acting when President Wilson was incapacitated with a stroke. Ford was careful and quiet as Watergate heaved to its close (as was Gore during the Clinton impeachment.) Nixon performed admirably, chairing cabinet meetings without appearing to usurp the president, when Eisenhower was ill. Bush 41 did the same after Reagan was shot.<br />
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But this is negative. I can think of one, rather profound, case where a vice president used his formal powers in a way that was significant - shaping U.S. history for centuries.<br />
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He may have been a scoundrel, but Aaron Burr did something important as vice president. He protected the independence of the judiciary. <a href="https://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2018/10/fun-history-lesson-impeachment-supreme.html">Read the whole story here.</a>Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-27536942267074194992018-10-05T00:41:00.003-04:002019-02-18T17:16:50.598-05:00Fun History Lesson: Impeachment, the Supreme Court, and the Balance of Powers<style type="text/css">
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<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">Since everyone is talking about impeaching Supreme Court Justices, let me tell you a story about how Aaron Burr saved America.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">In general Burr appears as a blackguard and scoundrel. And some of it is true (he did shoot Hamilton - but maybe it was an accident, who knows.) Burr's correspondence was lost, so there's a lot we don't know about him.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBw0O5xvNVYr8kGZgZd8qADwGh7yJwNZy_HPhAm4lYY-bEYF-YqG_DliU_7HqvlepcrMNnIQTn8PZK1L5xPkmfBI_cyEi-6t2Zz_iNlMVehx59RV0ZnwqMrjH-SEmEEmEMHMrXWslqFA/s1600/BurrPortrait.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="299" data-original-width="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBw0O5xvNVYr8kGZgZd8qADwGh7yJwNZy_HPhAm4lYY-bEYF-YqG_DliU_7HqvlepcrMNnIQTn8PZK1L5xPkmfBI_cyEi-6t2Zz_iNlMVehx59RV0ZnwqMrjH-SEmEEmEMHMrXWslqFA/s1600/BurrPortrait.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Aaron Burr: Scoundrel, hero, or both?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span class="s1">As VP, Burr presided over the Senate, which tries the impeached. In March 1803 the House impeached Judge Pickering, a federal district judge. Pickering was senile and needed to be removed. Burr conducted the Senate's proceedings admirably.Thomas Jefferson was intrigued by the possibilities. He had routed the Federalists in 1800 so the only real opposition was the Federalist dominated judiciary, and particularly his distant cousin Chief Justice John Marshall.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">Jefferson did not care for or trust Burr, but he mentioned the possibility of impeaching Supreme Court Justice Samuel Chase. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_investigations_of_United_States_federal_judges#George_Turner"><span class="s2">There have been a fair number of federal judges impeached</span></a>, but it was always linked to criminal activity. Removing Chase would have been a purely political move. On March 26, 1804 the House voted to impeach. On July 11, 1804 Burr shot Hamilton. Charged with crimes in New Jersey and New York, Burr fled to DC - where dueling was not illegal - and resumed his duties as Vice President.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">In early 1805, the Senate began its trial of Chase. Burr, by all accounts, presided in a fair, even-handed, and decorous manner. Chase was acquitted, by large margins on all charges on March 1, 1805. The failure to impeach Chase played a critical role in establishing an independent judiciary.</span></div>
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<span style="-webkit-text-stroke: rgb(29, 33, 41); color: #1d2129;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p3">
<span style="-webkit-text-stroke: rgb(29, 33, 41); color: #1d2129;">Did Aaron Burr do this for the good of the nation? Or did he do it to get Jefferson, who had dropped him from the ticket in 1804. Who knows? He did the right thing at a crucial early moment in our nation's history.</span><span class="s1"></span></div>
<br />Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-30068692517438168252018-08-19T12:14:00.001-04:002018-08-19T12:14:33.740-04:00Reckoning & Revelation in the 2020s Director's Cut I: The Ex-Presidents<i>As my regular readers (hi mom!) know, I am pretty convinced the <a href="https://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2018/07/july-4th-special-post-reckoning.html">2020s are going to be huge, a real political earthquake</a>. I'm pitching papers to conferences to force myself to write this up. In less than two weeks I'll be presenting one paper at the American Political Science Association. In November at ISSS-IS on the national security/foreign affairs implications. I have further papers planned on political violence in the United States (unfortunately there will probably be some) and technology policy. If each of these papers is five to ten thousand words, I'll have the better part of a book in no time.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>But I have stray thoughts related to my core thesis, probably not worth a book, but that I cannot just let alone. So this is the first installment of the director's cut.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM0z8d6qq3dgtqRBPLPYGAxTNItWjmKpPkOCWw51mE17cLDVi_C47a-xl-PBbhi_qAo69xYILk5TZhKJ3qkA5YsuhXby5bSM5CzRAceNoJombT6bPVE6rr0IvWf-e2W_mPTWK0ijW1fg/s1600/presidents+club.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="333" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM0z8d6qq3dgtqRBPLPYGAxTNItWjmKpPkOCWw51mE17cLDVi_C47a-xl-PBbhi_qAo69xYILk5TZhKJ3qkA5YsuhXby5bSM5CzRAceNoJombT6bPVE6rr0IvWf-e2W_mPTWK0ijW1fg/s320/presidents+club.jpg" width="213" /></a><a href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/B005GG0MIS/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1">The President's Club</a> is a fun, interesting book that describes the relationships between the present and former presidents. During my dissertation it had some neat details about vice presidents, but it was also about relationships between top politicians, which was certainly relevant to my dissertation. Occupants of the White House found their predecessors useful as sources of advice, political cover, and as emissaries. Of course there was usually something problematic in the relationship as well. Immediate past presidents wo<br />
<br />
uld tend to move to the background and let their successors make their own way. (If there was an electoral defeat, that often left some lingering hostility - although Carter and Ford and Clinton and Bush 41 all overcame this to become good friends.) Nixon, clawing his way back to respectability, was happy to help his successors and he was very capable. But of course, he was Nixon, a close association was not always smart politics. Carter tended to do his own thing, when he was good (as head of election monitoring in Panama in 1989) he was very good. And when he was bad (negotiating with North Korea in 1994), he was real pain in the ass.<br />
<br />
Probably the ideal relationship was Truman-Hoover. FDR of course wanted nothing to do with Hoover, who was political poison. But when Truman took office in 1945, time had passed. Most importantly, Truman needed Hoover's organizational skills to oversee post-war relief efforts in Europe (Hoover had become famous overseeing relief efforts after WW1). Hoover welcomed the opportunity to serve and he and Truman became friends.<br />
<br />
<b>Come the 2020s</b><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIeoFocPqAFMZOOMP26MbIocHGtAyDU_qehJuHMBddgSNZKGG3L7X4XxED559ADZR42n9XTyuoqprjl0qUM5t0710clnsr3-YDRHNO0r0E0EpoNfUqEVfbHu0aHOHDagy7kW2Ptf4MDg/s1600/Living_US_Presidents_2009.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="371" data-original-width="540" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIeoFocPqAFMZOOMP26MbIocHGtAyDU_qehJuHMBddgSNZKGG3L7X4XxED559ADZR42n9XTyuoqprjl0qUM5t0710clnsr3-YDRHNO0r0E0EpoNfUqEVfbHu0aHOHDagy7kW2Ptf4MDg/s320/Living_US_Presidents_2009.jpg" width="320" /></a>So what does this have to do with the 2020s? If, as I expect and predict, a Democrat wins big in 2020, they will have two energetic, capable, and generally popular Democratic predecessors to help them. With a big electoral victory, the next will hardly feel in the shadow of Obama or Clinton and thus feel freer to work with them. There is no significant personal or political baggage to deep collaboration. Clinton will be an energetic 75 and Obama will only be 60. They will both have lots to contribute. Further, the current president guts and filets the Republican party, Bush 43 (who personally likes Clinton and Obama) may be willing to play a role. He could be an extremely valuable emissary to traditional GOP constituencies who choose to adapt to the new era.<br />
<br />
The traditional roles of the ex-President have been relatively low-key, but extremely useful. The ex-Presidency however is now <a href="https://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2015/04/the-clinton-foundation.html">increasingly institutionalized</a>. Ex-Presidents sit on top of a personal network of think tanks, foundations, and communications operations. An ex-president is more than just a prominent person who can go out on the campaign trail or meet a foreign leader (although that will remain important.) They are now in a position to generate deep policy analysis, mobilize public interest, and support causes and efforts.<br />
<br />
(Carter and Bush 41 will of course be very old, and their public activity will probably decline - but you never know!)<br />
<br />
Basically an popular and allied ex-president is a huge force-multiplier for a sitting president.<br />
<br />
<b>And the VP?</b><br />
My take would be incomplete without mentioning the vice president. Two notes, one is that under Clinton, VP Gore was the key interlocutor with President Carter (with whom Clinton had a strained relationship.) This might be an excellent emerging role for the vice president, managing relations with the former presidents. You cannot pawn an ex-president off on a staffer - it just is not appropriate. But the vice president has sufficient standing and the ex-president will understand.<br />
<br />
But what about the still very active VPs on the national scene? Increasingly the ex-VP is also acquiring institutional trappings and in many cases they are generally well regarded. Could a president give the former VPs a "seat at the table" at the President's Club? Gore could certainly be seen as an honorary member, and why not Biden? (Cheney will probably not find himself in accord with the Democratic president of the 2020s).<br />
<br />
More force multipliers...<br />
<br />
<b>Social Media</b><br />
There are libraries about who social media has changed everything. The long and short is that it enables many-to-many communications. The interactive nature creates a much more engaging experience and a stronger relationship. FDR let Americans into the White House with his fireside chats. An effective social media endeavor can create a feeling of personal connection.<br />
<br />
At campaign events, Clinton would work the rope line furiously, knowing that every hand he shook would be converted to him - forever! With social media, politicians can now do that - at scale!<br />
<br />
The current president has used social media in new ways, but not necessarily strategically. But imagine the president along with several former presidents and vice presidents, backed by some serious analytics, reaching out to influencers at various micro and macro levels all over the globe.Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-69921308213633657332018-07-04T17:28:00.001-04:002018-07-04T17:28:17.710-04:00July 4th Special Post - The Reckoning: American Politics in the 2020s
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<br />
<div style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><i>I have hinted that I am at work on a secret project. But, secret no more. This idea about what is going on in U.S. politics was accepted to the <a href="https://www.apsanet.org/">American Political Science Association conference</a> and I need to start writing. With all the political ferment, on this day, in which we re-affirm our great national creed, I thought sharing was timely.</i></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The current upheaval in American politics is generally interpreted
through the lens of personalities and headlines, but it is actually the
manifestation of two deep historical cycles that have shaped American history
since the nation’s founding. The coming decade will probably bring both a
president with an expansive public warrant to remake political institutions
combined with a broad public sentiment to reform institutions to better reflect
American ideals. Understanding how these independent cycles interact will be
critical to grasping the huge changes the United States will face in the coming
decade.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><b>The Cycles Meet</b></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Stephen Skowronek’s <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Politics-Presidents-Make-Leadership-Clinton/dp/0674689372/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1530738945&sr=8-1&keywords=skowronek&dpID=51mbGFExmOL&preST=_SY291_BO1,204,203,200_QL40_&dpSrc=srch">ThePolitics Presidents Make: Leadership from John Adams to George Bush</a></i> and
later in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Presidential-Leadership-Political-Time-Reappraisal-ebook/dp/B01E959RJ6/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1530738945&sr=8-2&keywords=skowronek&dpID=51vqG1zYCdL&preST=_SY445_QL70_&dpSrc=srch">Presidential Leadership inPolitical Time: Reprise and Reappraisal</a></i> and Samuel Huntington’s <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/American-Politics-Disharmony-Samuel-Huntington/dp/0674030214/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8">American Politics: The Promise of Disharmony</a></i>
each propose cycles in which American political institutions come under severe
pressure. These cycles, which are independent of one another, have critical
points in which vast institutional changes occur. These dynamic periods of
change are converging in today’s America. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The last time that the two cycles met in this
fashion was during the presidency of Andrew Jackson. In looking back to
Jacksonian America, we can, perhaps, look forward as well.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Cambria;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><b><i>Top-Down: Presidential Time</i></b></span></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Skowronek’s <a href="https://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2010/12/reviewing-presidential-leadership-in.html">framework of “Presidential Time”</a> argues that the
effectiveness of the president relies on the president’s warrant to make
changes. The warrant for change is defined by the strength of the dominant
political regime and the president’s links to this regime. Skowronek defines
four types of presidencies. Periods of disjunction occur when the president is
beholden to a weak dominant political regime. These presidents, such as Herbert
Hoover and Jimmy Carter, seek to reorient their party to face new national
challenges, but are unable to obtain the needed warrant from their supporters
who remain committed to policies that served the party well in the past. These
periods are followed by periods of reconstruction in which the president, not
beholden to the weakened and no longer dominant party, is free to repudiate the
existing political order and establish a new political one. These presidents
include Jefferson, Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt, and Reagan. There are also
presidencies of articulation in which the party is strong and the president is
expected to follow through on the promises of the regime founder. Kennedy and
Johnson, for example, were charged with building on FDR’s achievements, as the
Bushes sought for complete the Reagan Revolution. Finally there are the
politics of pre-emption when the non-dominant party elects a president, who
co-opts the policies of the dominant party. Recent examples include Nixon,
Clinton, and Obama.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;">In many ways the present administration is unique, but <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/is-donald-trump-the-great-disruptor-probably-not/2017/04/24/99c86938-25d9-11e7-bb9d-8cd6118e1409_story.html?utm_term=.5fe0f19bcdf4">Skowronek himself has described President Trump as being a disjunctive president</a>, trapped
between the demands of the party stalwart and the needs of the present. One of the notable
characteristics of a disjunctive presidency, which Trump continues, is that the
party often elects a president with only a nominal affiliation with the party
establishment. Trump was elected to chart a new course and break from party orthodoxy,
but has increasingly become beholden to it. When the president sought to make
good on his central promise to repeal the Affordable Healthcare Act and replace
it with something better, he was stymied by an inability to satisfy party
hardliners who adhered to small government orthodoxy and more centrist members
of the party who recognized the need to improve upon rather than eliminate the
popular program. The president’s primary legislative achievement is a tax cut
that, while strongly aligned with party ideology, is generally unpopular with
the public and undercuts any claim to being a different type of Republican.</span><span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">What is most notable about the politics of disjunction however is
that they are followed by the politics of reconstruction, in which the next
administration has a vast warrant to repudiate the last president and establish
new institutions and pursue new policies. Just like the Reagan Revolution and
the New Deal before that, policy entrepreneurs with ideas congruent with the
repudiating the last administration may find enormous scope to enact new
responses under the administration of a president with a vast public warrant.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><b><i>Bottom-Up: Creedal Passion</i></b></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Skowronek’s framework can be understood as a top-down explanation
of institutional change in which the president remakes institutions that no
longer adequately respond to pressing political problems. Huntington’s
framework, in contrast, is a bottom-up explanation of institutional change, as
the American people demand changes that bring the nation’s institutions in
accord with the central ideals of the American Creed. Huntington argues that
the United States is shaped, not by a national identity, but by a Creed that
consists of a range of shared values including commitments to equality,
liberty, and individualism. The United States cannot live up to its ideals – no
nation could, both because of their ambition and because of internal
contradictions. Americans address this cognitive dissonance through a number of
strategies, passing through periods of cynicism, complacency, and hypocrisy about
their ideals. Every 60-70 years the United States enters a period of Creedal
Passion, gripped by moralism in which there is vast public sentiment to remake
the United States in line with these ideals. These periods, such as the
Progressive Era of the late 19<sup>th</sup> and early 20<sup>th</sup> century,
and the Sixties and Seventies, are characterized by enormous political, social,
and cultural change. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">These periods of creedal passion share a number of
characteristics, including a broad questioning of authority and hierarchy,
exposure of and moral indignation at social injustice, leveling concentrations
of wealth and power, and flourishing of new communications media. Huntington predicted
that the second and third decades of the 21<sup>st</sup> century would be a
period of Creedal passion. The well-documented decline in public trust of
traditional sources of authority and the massive public activism (on all points
of the political spectrum from the Tea Party to Black Lives Matter) characterized
by moral indignation are strong indications that we are in the midst of a
period of Creedal Passion.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The contrast between the two Roosevelt presidencies illustrates
the differences between the two cycles. Theodore Roosevelt, while undoubtedly a
vigorous individual, was not a president who established a new political order.
He built on and expanded the existing one. The Creedal Passion of the
Progressive Era, with its outrage against high levels of poverty and the
increasing concentration of wealth and power, was the engine driving the
tremendous works of his administration. Franklin Roosevelt, in contrast, was
able to reshape the relationship between the U.S. government and the American
people, not because of a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">sui generis</i>
outrage, but because of a massive economic crisis, which existing political
arrangements were not able to address. Skowronek’s new political orders occur
when the old order is no longer able to address the challenges facing the
nation and a new president is given a vast warrant to re-shape institutions.
Huntington’s periods of creedal passion occur, not necessarily due to a secular
political crisis, but rather to an increased awareness of long-standing injustices
that are not in accord with American values.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Cambria;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><b>The Age of Jackson</b></span></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQUWaRcxJqryV6bIkIheBlzFkPsGe003tEXGq9KvhEtnsK98_4GonmqzqtZOS544oETkB3ro8poSX4wS1vyikXaOGqCDZcLyw_uhbRLj6YNzPbe4xJsCus081JLe5pkroiGJMudXxbZw/s1600/07_andrew_jackson1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="452" data-original-width="800" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQUWaRcxJqryV6bIkIheBlzFkPsGe003tEXGq9KvhEtnsK98_4GonmqzqtZOS544oETkB3ro8poSX4wS1vyikXaOGqCDZcLyw_uhbRLj6YNzPbe4xJsCus081JLe5pkroiGJMudXxbZw/s320/07_andrew_jackson1.jpg" width="320" /></a><span style="color: black; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">While both of these frameworks are independently robust, little
work has been done to examine how they interact with one another. To understand
the effect of these cycles in tandem it is critical to study the one previous
period in American history when the institution reforming parts of cycles met,
under Andrew Jackson. Although little considered now (Jackson is primarily
remembered for his enormous cruelties to Native Americans), <a href="https://www.amazon.com/What-Hath-God-Wrought-Transformation/dp/0195392434">the Jacksonian erawas a period of tremendous social, political, and cultural change.</a> Jackson,
using the expansive warrant for change granted by the American people,
established the presidency as the tribunal of the people and destroyed concentrations
of power such as the Bank of the United States and the patrician class that had
previously dominated the presidency. During Jackson’s presidency public
sentiment also re-shaped politics and culture. Organized political parties were
established. A powerful militant abolitionist movement emerged.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Transcendentalism, a new and uniquely
American, school of thought flowered. Many of these reforms and changes
occurred, not because of any particular action on the part of Jackson and his
administration (as a slaveholder, he was not a supporter of abolition).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHy1VUCGZwj4d05LIEnS_0UNNzZ5ql5KhZrDImsZWhLpwQC6FMYqgkm_LilvGdx4dTqMZHHW3tAY8R8sAmWTzpU-tKkQwi9h-pHE10cWE4bSXaJOp7_a5S3vHhzbIgCvvFvP_UxfiriA/s1600/516fQvcOtBL._SX329_BO1%252C204%252C203%252C200_.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="499" data-original-width="331" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHy1VUCGZwj4d05LIEnS_0UNNzZ5ql5KhZrDImsZWhLpwQC6FMYqgkm_LilvGdx4dTqMZHHW3tAY8R8sAmWTzpU-tKkQwi9h-pHE10cWE4bSXaJOp7_a5S3vHhzbIgCvvFvP_UxfiriA/s400/516fQvcOtBL._SX329_BO1%252C204%252C203%252C200_.jpg" width="265" /></a></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The past is an imperfect guide to the present or future. But
reviewing the previous eras of presidents practicing the politics of
reconstruction and periods of Creedal passion may give perspective on the
coming decade. Examining Jackson’s America, when these two cycles dove-tailed
may provide particular insight into how public outrage at the gap between
American ideals and institutions will manifest itself and what concentrations
of power will be subject to limitations and government action, and finally what
new institutions may emerge.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><b>The Cycles Meet</b></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The public policy implications of
the dynamic segments of the Skowronek and Huntington cycles meeting are
profound. There will be vast opportunities not only to implement new policies,
but also to eliminate old policies and the institutions that drive them. This
analysis will provide insight into the types of policies that are likely to be
enacted or repudiated by a powerful president establishing a new political
order in a period of Creedal passion as well as to the types of issues that
will resonate with a public desirous of remaking the United States.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Reform will have its limits. One
of the characteristics of the American Creed is a distrust of complex institutions.
It is impossible, however, to have a modern society without such institutions.
Deploying the president’s power to destroy and create institutions in a manner
that balances the public’s demand for greater transparency and reduced concentrations
of power with the practical needs of a modern society will be an epic quest to
navigate Scylla and Charybdis. This will require understanding the deep
currents of American politics in order to tack wisely.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="viewpaperpublicationabstract" style="border: none; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 1.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Even in periods of vast social
and political change, politics remains the art of the possible. This work is
not intended as a roadmap for a new policy. Rather it is a travelers guide to
the coming decade and its complex political and social terrain.</span></div>
</div>
Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-62104787788873548962018-06-17T17:33:00.001-04:002018-06-17T17:33:05.004-04:00Lobbying Pence: On the VP's Role in Trump White HouseWhat a great Father's Day gift, some reports on the doings of Vice President Pence!<div>
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This White House leaks, that is an understatement. This White House gushes. Yet, monitoring reports on the internecine warfare of the West Wing, Pence remains in the shadows. His public appearances are of course covered and interesting. (The <a href="https://slate.com/human-interest/2018/06/mike-pence-gave-a-trump-stump-speech-to-a-crowd-of-southern-baptists-and-it-didnt-go-over-very-well.html">limited love the VP received at the Southern Baptist Convention</a> was certainly interesting - they should have been the friendliest of crowds.)</div>
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But public appearances are basically <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2017/10/vpwatch5-vp-must-kneel-before-president.html">carrying the President's water</a> (or whatever POTUS wants done with his water...) </div>
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<iframe width="320" height="266" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/R22wRUHFi7w/0.jpg" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/R22wRUHFi7w?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>
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Pence has been pretty effective as a presidential surrogate, smoothing our POTUS' rough edges (as much as possible, at least) on <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2017/09/vpwatch3-pences-role-part-1-access.html">Capitol Hill</a>, <a href="vpwatch1: VP as Signal - An Experiment">domestically, and abroad</a>. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2018/05/02/mike-pences-peculiar-sense-of-morality/?utm_term=.b36eac86f2cc">This has had its costs of course, it does for every VP, but particularly in this administration. </a></div>
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From what I've seen <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2017/09/vpwatch3-pences-role-part-1-access.html">Pence's biggest contribution has actually been in personnel</a>. Trump had a very limited rolodex of DC-types who feel administration jobs. That has hurt him (although in fairness, the very capable John Kelly can't run a Trump White House, so probably no one can.)</div>
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None of this is influence (which is what my dissertation was about). My core contention is that areas where VPs play are a role are areas where Presidents face vacuums in experience or are particular priorities. Following where a VP exercises influence can tell us something about how decisions are being made in the White House.</div>
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The problem was, that for all of the White House leaks, there was only very limited information on the doings of the VP! But that, quite suddenly, has changed...</div>
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<b>Pence in the News: Finally!</b></div>
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First, there is a new book on vice presidents (how's my own book on the VPs coming... don't ask.)</div>
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Reporting on the book, <a href="http://www.katebrower.com/">Kate Andersen Brower</a>'s <a href="http://www.katebrower.com/first-in-line/"><i>First in Line: Presidents, Vice Presidents</i></a>, and the Pursuit of Power has this <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/reliable-source/wp/2018/06/04/president-trump-reminds-vice-president-pence-of-his-father-according-to-new-book/?utm_term=.562b52f4d3e2">fascinating tidbit</a>:</div>
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<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 18px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
The author tried to persuade Pence’s staff to let her sit down with the former governor of Indiana. She’d already talked to the other six men who had held the title of VPOTUS. “I don’t want to leave you guys out,” Brower recalled telling Pence’s gatekeepers. But they wouldn’t budge. The narrative was too tricky, especially after reports that Pence was looking to position himself for a 2020 bid for the office down the hall.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 18px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
“They are very tight-lipped, and they’re smart about it,” Brower said, adding that Pence’s staff has assumed a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” stance on profiles and one-on-one interviews. “If it seems like he’s doing a lot, then the president won’t like that,” she said.</blockquote>
So, that's why there aren't many leaks about the VP. He is being very careful not to leak or have too large a public profile. And if you do that, no one has much reason to leak about you. </div>
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Then there is this terrific bit of reporting from <i>The Washington Post, </i>P<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pence-turns-vps-office-into-gateway-for-lobbyists-to-influence-the-trump-administration/2018/06/14/75675bfa-6424-11e8-a69c-b944de66d9e7_story.html?utm_term=.af5b443561e1">ence turns VP's office into gateway for lobbyists to influence the Trump administration</a>. So far twice as many organizations have registered to lobby of Office of the Vice President in Pence's first year as in any of the years in which Biden or Cheney served as VP (the number of lobbying clients trying to influence the President directly has remained essentially flat.) Here's a key quote:</div>
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“The vice president’s policy staff regularly takes meetings with representatives from the private sector — including registered lobbyists, whose activity is publicly disclosed and regulated — to discuss policy,” said Alyssa Farah, Pence’s press secretary. “Hearing the real-world impacts, positive or negative, to individuals or businesses is a key input to the deliberative process behind President Trump’s agenda and making the federal government more accountable to the American people.”</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 18px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
In some cases, Pence has served as a kind of second White House chief of staff on regulatory issues, given his extensive knowledge of how the government works and the president’s relative lack of interest in policy details, according to current and former Trump administration officials.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 18px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Pence was also responsible for staffing many of the federal agencies that lobbyists seek to influence. One other lobbyist who interacts with Pence described the vice president’s office as a key entryway to reach officials such as Seema Verma, the administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, who worked for Pence when he was governor of Indiana. A spokesman for Verma said the agency gets requests for meetings “in many different ways.”<br />“His staff is very accessible,” said the lobbyist, who, like others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid jeopardizing future access to the Trump administration. “If you can’t get high up in the West Wing, they are your best bet.”</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 18px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
The actions taken by Pence and his staff as a result of lobbying are not disclosed in federal filings, and more than a dozen companies that have hired people to contact his office declined to comment on the role of the vice president or what their lobbying spending accomplished. </blockquote>
Then there's this report from today's Post (I check lots of sources for VP doings, but it just so happens that <i>The Washington Post</i> is breaking the news on this particular front.) <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/under-pressure-from-pence-us-aid-directed-to-christian-yazidi-communities-in-iraq/2018/06/15/815d8e60-6f4c-11e8-afd5-778aca903bbe_story.html?utm_term=.3ce81af6b8ac">The vice president has pressed USAID to direct funds to aid Iraqi Christian and Yazidis.</a><br />
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<span style="color: #111111; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif;">But Pence was unhappy with the progress in the field. He recently “directed” Green to go to Iraq before the end of this month and report back to him on plans to get assistance there quickly, according to a statement from the vice president’s office.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 18px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif;">In a sharp-edged statement on Friday, Pence’s office said the vice president “will not tolerate bureaucratic delays.”</span><span style="color: #111111; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif;"><br /></span></blockquote>
<blockquote style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 18px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
According to a U.S. official familiar with Pence’s concern that, as he saw it, USAID had failed to prioritize the issue, the vice president told Green that he would support any personnel changes the USAID administrator chose to make.<br />Before the end of the day, the head of USAID’s Middle East bureau, a career Foreign Service officer, was replaced by a political appointee who had worked on development projects under Green at the International Republican Institute.</blockquote>
What both of these stories have in common is the VP (and his staff) putting pressure on the bureaucracy to change policy. <u>There is nothing wrong with this in principle.</u><br />
<br />
This is what politicians do. <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3025193">They cannot control the vast bureaucracies directly (the famous principle-agent problem on a massive scale). They can intervene at times and places or structure bureaucracies in a way to help ensure preferred outcomes.</a> This is agnostic to the actual policies. I don't know if having USAID put more of its limited resources towards towards Yazidis and Christians is actually smart development policy. But this is the kind of thing politicians do.<br />
<br />
<b>Something Old</b><br />
Many of the things the OVP is up to are not that different from their predecessors. Other VPs have been a path to reaching the White House for groups that did not have relationships with the president. Mondale was the go-to person for traditional Democratic supporters like African-Americans, labor, and the Jewish community, because Carter did not have strong links with them. The hard right reached out to Quayle, in order to make sure their preferences reached the more moderate President Bush 43. Al Gore was the environmentalist voice in the White House.<br />
<br />
Vice presidents have also pressed bureaucracies on a huge range of issues. <a href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/cheney/chapters/leaving_no_tracks/">Cheney famously found a workaround for the Endangered Species Act</a> that allowed the government to open damns and provide water to drought-stricken farmers (which also led to a massive fish die-off.)<br />
<br />
Gore was a go-to for Clinton on innumerable bureaucratic issues, from coordinating security for the 1996 Olympics to Reinventing Government. All vice presidents do this stuff, either on issues of personal concern or on behalf of the president. And in the process, of course they make new friends and take care of old ones.<br />
<br />
Is this corruption? Maybe, certainly it can be. Lobbyists and organizations make donation to politicians who help them out. Sometimes it is all pretty mercenary, sometimes it is well-intended gratitude. If the OVP is now a den of corruption, well so is the rest of this town. (This leaves aside the administration's promise to drain the swamp, which clearly was not going to happen.)<br />
<br />
So far this fits with the paradigm that Pence, as a Washington insider who knows how things work (and just as importantly who makes them work), takes care of things for the president.<br />
<br />
<b>Something New</b><br />
But, something is off in seeing the doings of Pence's office as just more of the same. The USAID issue might be classic vice presidential influence. This does not seem like something the president would oppose. Pence takes care of his base, the evangelicals. This works in two ways, first his base cares about the fate of Christians in the Middle East. Also, USAID grants to help the Christians and Yazidis are apparently going through faith-based organizations - that is, at least in some cases, be groups that will generally be aligned with the VP's world view and institutional supporters. That's just good politics.<br />
<br />
The lobbying however, while not new, is occurring on a much larger scale. The obvious conclusion is that in a poorly run White House, the OVP can get stuff done. Plus there are Pence people all over the administration. People in the bowels of the bureaucracy tend to sit up and respond to a call from the OVP, and even more so if the OVP got them their job. That's all standard. But doing so on such a large scale for paid lobbyists that work for businesses is new.<br />
<br />
Anything the VP does, a critical question is: what does the president think?<br />
<br />
Normally a president might be a little concerned that so many people were approaching OVP for favors. First, why aren't they coming to President? Second, the more people reaching out to the VP, the more likely that the VP gets into something that will embarrass the President.<br />
<br />
That is in a normal administration. This administration does not seem to have a big problem with the influence peddling business. Second, the President does not grasp standard political inputs and outputs, thus is not monitoring the VP and does not really care. Finally, the President may trust the VP not to do anything that will be a problem. This final point is entirely plausible. Pence has been loyal to a fault and has maintained access.<br />
<br />
Or not. According to a story from <i>The New York Times</i> about Pence's <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/14/us/politics/pence-trump-midterms.html">burgeoning political operation</a>, which could be seen as filling a vacuum (because the president is not terribly interested the mechanics of the running a campaign.) Some White House staffers however, see it more as empire building, but grant that if no one else will do it, Pence might as well run the 2018 mid-term efforts.<br />
<br />
Presidents may delegate a great deal to the VP, especially in the mid-term elections. There's a cold logic to this by they way, since mid-terms often go badly for the president, so if the VP is on point, who takes the blame?<br />
<br />
Taken as whole, this much scope over political operations is pretty astounding. <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2016/10/vice-presidents-and-foreign-policy-a-forward-looking-review-of-the-record/">In my article in <i>War on the Rocks </i>I observed that given Trump's inexperience, Pence would be effectively a back-up chief of staff helping the president with everything.</a> But the president's disengagement from the standard policy process and lack of interest in advice, has instead left Pence a great deal of room to do low-key stuff. He does not have much influence on big issues (I can't imagine Pence wants to get into trade wars for example). But on lesser issues it appears he has a free hand as long as - in this classic description of his great predecessor as VP Martin Van Buren, "he rows to his object with muffled oars."<br />
<br />
<b>Hidden Hand of the Hidden Hand</b><br />
By most accounts, Pence's chief of staff Nick Ayers is a critical player in all of this. He is extraordinarily savvy and he is good at threading the needle - going just far enough. This is, precisely what Pence needs in this environment. One other thing about Ayers, he is extraordinary at turning political activity into money. Pence is certainly willing to help his friends (who have now all become lobbyists.) But it is probably Ayers who saw the opportunities to put out an open for business sign at the OVP.<br />
<br />
In general VPs are loyal, painfully so, and avoid even the appearance of a conflict with the president. VPs who get too big for the job have poor political fates. (See John C. Calhoun, Nelson Rockefeller, and most recently Cheney.) Can Pence continue to thread the needle, build power without attracting attention from the president?<br />
<br />
Given the unique nature of this administration, does it even matter? The president cannot fire the vice president and if the president becomes radioactive, being politically cast out will be a blessing, not a curse.</div>
Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-3296690652808513882018-05-01T00:14:00.007-04:002018-05-01T08:20:26.378-04:00The VP and the Ronny Jackson VA nomination<div>
I know the big news is more Mueller, but that's not my thing. I'm about the Veep, and there is some fascinating news on that front.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
CNN <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/30/politics/karen-pence-doctor-privacy-ronny-jackson/index.html">reports</a> that the vice president's physician had written memos to the White House chief of staff John Kelly that he had some problems with White House physician and erstwhile nominee to be Secretary of Veterans Affairs Ronny Jackson. Those memos were shared with CNN.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
You can read the details in the report, but apparently on September 8, 2017 Karen Pence had a medical situation at Camp David and had to be taken to Walter Reed. Jackson got involved and revealed personal medical information about the vice president's wife. When Ms. Pence learned of this she was displeased and told her doctor (who is not identified in the story) to take the issue to the Vice President's Chief of Staff Nick Ayers, who in turn would inform Kelly. This led to charged meetings between the vice president's physician and Jackson, which were detailed in the memos was described Jackson as "unprofessional" and "intimidating."</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi03Ybi33drB_934tIdHHWYC5Kw_FRGzCf0DWeOwsrJU9rfAKakKMUarIh1m9QfuyDvvwssT1iC7wEb0ggt1XWljjjIxG975TJ4E-3uNnz4VUUoMeW2-f_hdFUIc3zkcFPPehYfhyphenhyphenJFCA/s1600/VAseal.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="225" data-original-width="225" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi03Ybi33drB_934tIdHHWYC5Kw_FRGzCf0DWeOwsrJU9rfAKakKMUarIh1m9QfuyDvvwssT1iC7wEb0ggt1XWljjjIxG975TJ4E-3uNnz4VUUoMeW2-f_hdFUIc3zkcFPPehYfhyphenhyphenJFCA/s320/VAseal.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Forget all the infighting, the VA needs leadership!</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
The fact that the White House had this information (had had it for months) and yet Jackson was still nominated is just a reminder of how impulsive and utterly unprofessional the president's process of selecting key appointees can be. But we already knew that really?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
That's the story.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<i>But what's the story behind this story? Why release this information now, with Jackson's nomination and probably his career dead? What is the vice president up to here?</i></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
First, Pence probably had a big problem with Jackson personally, while also recognizing that he would be a big problem politically if he got the nomination. Taking this information to the president would have been useless, since the president was besotted with the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/16/politics/dr-ronny-jackson-donald-trump-clean-bill-of-health/index.html">handsome doctor who said such nice things about him on the TV box.</a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<i>But then why didn't these memos about Jackson leak to derail his nomination?</i></div>
<div>
<i></i><br />
<i></i></div>
<div>
The Vice President must "row to his object with muffled oars." Vice presidents that hope to remain close to the president cannot publicly or semi-publicly oppose or contradict the president. By semi-publicly that means disagreeing with the president in a situation in which it could become public - i.e. a meeting with a large number of attendees. If there are lots of attendees someone can leak it and get away with it. In a small meeting the leaker can be identified and held accountable.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
If the memos had come out, the vice president and his office would be the first suspect and then Pence's so far impressive record of absolute loyalty would be lost.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<i>So why leak these memos now? Why kick the dead horse that is Ronny Jackson's career?</i></div>
<div>
<i></i><br />
<i></i></div>
<div>
Now I'm just theorizing. Leaking the memos is a brilliant move to have it both ways. Pence is now associated with the defeat of the politically radioactive Jackson (cool superhero, no?) He is disassociated with the terrible White House decision-making, and the memos will probably be seen as a signal that it was in fact Pence and his team that provided the information that sank Admiral Jackson (which is probably true.)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Yet, in no way did Pence publicly come out against the President's choice. A neat trick. But, Pence did it before. The one clear issue that Pence can be tied to is firing Flynn.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<i>This seems like a pretty elaborate scheme.</i></div>
<div>
<i></i><br />
<i></i></div>
<div>
That's not a question, but I think I know what I'm trying to say. First, I don't believe in conspiracies in general. But we are in such a dysfunctional White House that my normal instinct to blame chaos instead of conspiracy may not hold. Also, have you met <a href="https://highline.huffingtonpost.com/articles/en/nick-ayers-mike-pence/">Nick Ayers</a>?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Pence's chief of staff is a <i>wunderkind</i> and quite a piece of work. He's a genial, charming guy, who has an amazing killer instinct and an knack for walking the line. He's got a knack for ingratiating himself with Trump (probably one of the reasons Pence hired him), but also can keep his distance. If anyone could pull this off, it's Nick Ayers.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>There's a follow-up question. </b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Pence allies are all over the administration, with a particularly strong presence in <a href="https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/hhs-political-appointees-resumes-show-ties-price-pence">health care related positions at HHS</a>, including Secretary Azar (former executive with Indiana based pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly & Co.) as well as Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator Seema Verma.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Does Pence have someone in mind for Secretary for Veterans Affairs?</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-2835312627666046412018-02-19T20:26:00.000-05:002018-02-19T22:12:33.192-05:00Presidents Day Special: Interpreting Presidential Rankings<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/public-rates-presidents-jfk-reagan-obama-at-top-nixon-lbj-trump-at-bottom/" style="font-size: 12pt;">Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia Center for Politics</a><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> released the results of a poll (conducted with Ipsos) of American
ratings of past presidents. <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2016/02/belated-presidents-day-some-lists-of.html">Rating presidents is a time honored historical game.</a> There are some generally accepted conclusions – Lincoln was the best,
Nixon the worst. There are always fun re-interpretations. Ulysses S Grant has
his fans, as does McKinley and Martin Van Buren. Everyone loves Teddy Roosevelt
(except H.L. Mencken of course.)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I of course have deep sympathy for all (or almost all) of
those who have held our highest office. As Damon Runyon wrote of FDR, <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2015/08/jimmy-carter-and-critical-empathy.html">“He only did
the best he could, no man could have done more.”<o:p></o:p></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Sabato’s poll shows what regular Americans think of the last
dozen holders of the office.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTDXDcbHAylbxDtEGgDLvqYtDJfZrPvQtfcksKvxmhpPESyTu5hlFU53TMFtg3BIh9qSpYCaeo-xit8LbCM_yYEtQYA9s1HorM9iYkO76k97X9dcvD6cHrHAc87tBJK8jvXFh9G4IkBw/s1600/CFP2018021501-table1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="354" data-original-width="434" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTDXDcbHAylbxDtEGgDLvqYtDJfZrPvQtfcksKvxmhpPESyTu5hlFU53TMFtg3BIh9qSpYCaeo-xit8LbCM_yYEtQYA9s1HorM9iYkO76k97X9dcvD6cHrHAc87tBJK8jvXFh9G4IkBw/s400/CFP2018021501-table1.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Table from Sabato's Silver Ball at UVA Center for Politics</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;">My first thought on reviewing this list is a frightening one
– and true. The list is a ranking based on looks. That is why JFK always comes
out on top, followed by movie star Reagan, cool hand Barack, and Bill Clinton
who was sort of a deep-fried JFK. At the bottom we have our baldest and most
bloated president in recent history, followed by LBJ with his outsized facial features,
and of course Nixon.</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But really, what is the deal with JFK? Not just Democrats,
Republicans also love him, rating him ahead of Eisenhower (to say nothing of
Ford and Nixon.) He was an immensely attractive man, exemplar of a new generation,
who – besides his looks – was witty and appeared to dispatch his office with
aplomb. He was blessed with a beautiful and graceful wife and he died
tragically and young.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
With JFK’s assassination, it seemed America broke. We had
the turmoil of the 1960s, the terrible war in Vietnam, and Watergate. In a
college science fiction writing class about alternative histories, two stories
in a class of a dozen, featured LBJ and the war in Vietnam (one by me.) We had
been children when that war ended, but it cast a long shadow.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Watergate, the outgrowth of JFK’s GOP foil, may make another
Kennedyesque Camelot impossible. JFK was a deeply flawed man. Besides the
compulsive womanizing, he had severe health problems that left him in great
pain and were controlled with significant pharmaceuticals. The press knew, but allowed
the president’s private life to remain private. After Nixon, that was no longer
possible. The presidency was brought out of the shadows.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
We mourn the man, but we also mourn the moment.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Somehow in our collective memory JFK sits alongside Lincoln
in our imaginary Mount Rushmore, while other figures – truly giant – have begun
to fade.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Splitting Differences<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It is interesting to compare the splits between the ratings
by party. The average partisan difference is 2.07. The largest splits are over
Obama and Trump, both over 5. Somehow this is not a surprise. The Democrats' rating of Obama is the highest rating of any president by any partisan group
and their rating of Trump is the lowest. The Republican rating of Trump is the
third highest of any president by partisan group (after Obama by Democrats and
Reagan by Republicans). The Republican rating of Obama is the third lowest
rating of any president by a partisan group (beating out only Nixon and Trump
among Democrats.)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpLyTvNj2rRtB-lsXShEcaZAWAougsDfB5PsUDeG1MCq_8ZYP153QSlLM2ePm1DzwVHSdDcSqqoFKslCyqTilRpqzSCtFCGkcx_C4oO1vZ6S9YqjPPeSun33GO9NXnSxoHgkG57PhbtA/s1600/ClippedTable.tiff" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="452" data-original-width="788" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpLyTvNj2rRtB-lsXShEcaZAWAougsDfB5PsUDeG1MCq_8ZYP153QSlLM2ePm1DzwVHSdDcSqqoFKslCyqTilRpqzSCtFCGkcx_C4oO1vZ6S9YqjPPeSun33GO9NXnSxoHgkG57PhbtA/s400/ClippedTable.tiff" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">I made this Table, using the UVA/Ipsos poll.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">The second largest partisan splits are over Reagan and
Clinton at 2.88. The smallest partisan split is over LBJ, only .31 (more on him
below.)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Democrats appear to be easier on rating Republicans than
vice-versa. The Democrats rate LBJ as the worst president from their party, and
rate four Republicans ahead of him. Besides Reagan, the Bushes and Eisenhower
are all rated just a bit below average.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The GOP only rates JFK ahead of Nixon (the Republican they
rate lowest). Interestingly, Republican respondents go somewhat easy on LBJ,
rating him middle of the pack as far as Democrats go – only a little worse than
Democrats rate him. LBJ is interesting because (like Ford) Independents rate
both of them significantly lower than the opposing party. This highlights the
observation above, that for many people Johnson is where things started to go
wrong for the United States.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It was Reagan who said the 11<sup>th</sup> commandment was,
“Thou shalt not speak ill of they fellow Republican.” Perhaps a bit of that
party discipline shows here the lockstep Republican preference for Republicans.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Gender and
Generations<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The poll also broke down ratings of presidents by gender and
generation. On the gender side, there were several cases of men distinctly
rating certain presidents higher than women did. Eisenhower has the strongest
split, possibly men think – well he was a general so he must be ok. The male
preference for Trump is hardly unknown, but there are comparable male
preferences for LBJ and Nixon. Lest one think it is because women blanched at
their homeliness, men also preferred JFK and Reagan. I have no idea why men
rated these presidents higher than women.<o:p></o:p></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjH5l1CgrRtumqLk_pg0iiqMquwvQha7CbQzAg4Kjzj9srlZ497go_oneGW_AVc1JNamPYyFYI785P5KyJO64RhvnrajEd1W8L6B1sXHwNZ5Qx4_M4LYHTzQyeXu2x8gGermuxGvpjo6w/s1600/CFP2018021501-table2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="354" data-original-width="513" height="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjH5l1CgrRtumqLk_pg0iiqMquwvQha7CbQzAg4Kjzj9srlZ497go_oneGW_AVc1JNamPYyFYI785P5KyJO64RhvnrajEd1W8L6B1sXHwNZ5Qx4_M4LYHTzQyeXu2x8gGermuxGvpjo6w/s400/CFP2018021501-table2.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Table from Sabato's Silver Ball at the UVA Center for Politics</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The only president women rated higher than men did was
Obama. Perhaps his model, modern marriage in which his wife was clearly
outspoken and engaged (after the demure Laura Bush) was appealing.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The breakdowns of different generations’ presidential ratings
is particularly interesting and may be the most significant of the survey. The
survey notes that actually remembering presidents may play a significant role
in rating them. The 55+ bracket overall rates presidents at 5.67, their lowest
rating is Nixon at 4.36 (not bad considering they remember Watergate!) Except
for Obama and Clinton, the 55+ cohort rates presidents from both parties higher
than the other cohorts. And their ratings of Obama and Clinton, while the
lowest, are not that low at about 5.5.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The 18-34 cohort has at best blah ratings for presidents
outside their living memory except for JFK (that magic really has lived.) They
are huge outliers on Reagan, seeing him as a bit below average. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Can I just say that it kills me that fully formed adults
with jobs and advanced degrees were born <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">after
</i>Reagan left office – time is inexorable!<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
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Overall the farther back you go, the more my generation
(35-54, caught in the middle) converges with the 18-34 cohort. On more recent
presidents they are closer to the elders. In overall ratings, my generation’s
average ratings are 5.07 while the 18-34s is 4.64. The only recent presidents
they rate as above average are Clinton and Obama (who comes in at a whopping
6.96 – they really liked him.)<o:p></o:p></div>
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The obvious interpretation is, as I mentioned, that simply remembering
who presidents were. But it is also possible, that having entered the workforce
in the face of a huge recession and watching their nation struggle with a pair
of endless wars, they maybe younger generations are more skeptical of authority
and their national leadership. But their tremendous affection for Obama and
their continuing to carry the Kennedy flame suggests that they are not so cynical
that they cannot be inspired.<o:p></o:p></div>
Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-48909977893852453082018-02-11T11:40:00.001-05:002018-02-11T11:42:54.034-05:00VPWriting6: (Increments + Exponents)Impact = Excrement<div class="tr_bq">
<b>Increments</b></div>
I am still struck by my observation the other day at how a <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2018/01/vpwriting2-progress-so-far.html">mere 500 words a day can amount to serious output.</a> It makes it seem like being a writer should be easy. If you wander over to <a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/">TerrorWonk</a> (or right here on <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/">VeepCritique</a>) you'll find a number of my entries, usually 500 words-ish, most of which I can crank out in an hour.<br />
<br />
Hail the awesome power of increments!!!<br />
<br />
<b>Exponents</b><br />
However, to take one of these blog entries and make it publishable requires a lot, lot more. The increase is exponential. I would need to triple check references, verify the soundness of my arguments, and really polish the language. Further, there is an additional time investment on both the front end and on the back end. On the front end, I need to keep up on various issues to write thoughtfully about them. If I just dash something off, that's fine, but if I want to get it published then I really need to make sure I'm writing something worth reading. On the back end, to get something published one needs to engage editors. That includes finding appropriate publications, scanning them for content to make sure I'm not saying what has already been said and finally pitching editors. This last, crucial bit goes better if you actually have a relationship with said editors. That too, takes time.<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEcLNyi-BX0LKyGqHIY-2a_hxpWpMmuYdu_Azt8EaryjJo3Zkr-aj5uokl9L_a-tpg_8WTSiQNPaT6E97iEUllQ737K-OKimayQu4t9GQMzHBFjZMk0x1lvEKsdUgD7tIibD8f5iwzgQ/s1600/typewriter-801921_1280.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="853" data-original-width="1280" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEcLNyi-BX0LKyGqHIY-2a_hxpWpMmuYdu_Azt8EaryjJo3Zkr-aj5uokl9L_a-tpg_8WTSiQNPaT6E97iEUllQ737K-OKimayQu4t9GQMzHBFjZMk0x1lvEKsdUgD7tIibD8f5iwzgQ/s200/typewriter-801921_1280.jpg" width="200" /></a><br />
This process also involves triggering the <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2018/01/entry-28-self-doubt-strikes/">all-powerful self-doubt that most writers recognize</a> - which makes slow going even slower.<br />
<br />
So getting something published for real turns a one hour project into a day. I have an hour in the morning for writing, but not a whole day. Now, if my ambition were simply to knock out a decent op-ed a week I could do it. Alternately, I could blog volumes!<br />
<br />
But, <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2018/01/vpwriting3-front-burner.html">I have ideas for books and they take time</a>. If I could put down a solid thousand words a week towards a book I could have one done in a year or so. I think that's optimistic because if my writing time is about 10 hours a week and I need to do research, this strikes me as very difficult (the exponents I just mentioned), but maybe. People do it.<br />
<br />
But this brings us to the final factor.<br />
<br />
<b>Impact</b><br />
<blockquote>
<i>No man but a blockhead ever wrote, except for money.</i></blockquote>
<blockquote style="text-align: center;">
Dr. Samuel Johnson</blockquote>
Would I like my written work to have some impact on the affairs of the day? Yes.<br />
I would also like to get something out of it. I can get an academic book published. I've heard them described as very heavy business cards. If you want your book to sell and have impact you need to publicize it. At the same time if you are using your book as a business card (a very plausible strategy by the way) then it is marketing you - in which case it is part of your efforts at promotion.<br />
<br />
What I mean is, if any of what I write is going to matter to the world or to me, I need to be marketing it, I need to promote it. I clearly stink at this.<br />
<br />
One part of marketing would be to write short articles so that people start to see my name, so that editors are familiar with me, so that people start to follow me on social media.<br />
<br />
I can blog away, and I don't plan to quit, but I will literally have a half-dozen readers. But if my outside writing is taken up by finishing the books, when does the promotional activity happen? (Remember, I have a day job!)<br />
<br />
When I say <i>excrement </i>I don't mean my writing is bad. It's fine. It's that multiplied by zero impact it really all adds up to not much of anything.<br />
<br />
<b>Coda</b><br />
Of course, it doesn't help that I spent my writing morning puttering around with a blog entry about how much trouble I have writing... that's on me.Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-9280571775559605142018-02-01T20:32:00.000-05:002018-02-01T20:39:15.878-05:00VPWriting 5: Bad Writing Days<div class="MsoNormal">
I took Tuesday off and had three goals for the day. I
accomplished two of them, so in some ways that’s a win. I went to Costco (which
is a pretty heavy duty endeavor) and I got on the treadmill and ran. I did not
finish a draft of a proposal for a third book idea I have. I couldn’t get up
early, just exhausted, and then after the Costco trip and lunch with me wife
(who was working from home) I was wiped. I just couldn’t get the writing going.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOpwuwmW_66HtVVvvke7pQAf2m-2HGJwZJCew9MPAfP-fEFrXbgEkROsv3ehMJHFhAwnJ-arCENH-lDInQXEeSKMudG8LhcTUaWXzWckXVX2rrx81WEUKRbjMbYFsB7U22RVeddUluow/s1600/computer-3114274_640.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="426" data-original-width="640" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOpwuwmW_66HtVVvvke7pQAf2m-2HGJwZJCew9MPAfP-fEFrXbgEkROsv3ehMJHFhAwnJ-arCENH-lDInQXEeSKMudG8LhcTUaWXzWckXVX2rrx81WEUKRbjMbYFsB7U22RVeddUluow/s320/computer-3114274_640.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Pixabay has great free pics. I liked this one and seems to fit this post.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The proposal was due today. I lost a lot of motivation to
get it in when I saw the stipend. It would get me a few months off to write –
not that year I need. But I still wanted to get it submitted, because you never
know and the exercise is worth doing in its own right.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Wednesday, I had my wife drive morning carpool so I could go
into work late. The writing came along nicely. I had a decent working draft of
the proposal (I finished it up today.) Of course at work on Wednesday the work
writing was dry. I have a not an ongoing paper that I simply could not
untangle. Today I had some other stuff to attend to but I’ll try again
tomorrow. However, I have another work paper that I really need to get cracking
on.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2018/01/vpwriting3-front-burner.html">So, secret book project is off the table for the moment.Back to book two on Pakistan that needs to be wrapped up – but is partially inmy co-author’s hands. So after I knock off what I have in front of me, back toVeepWriting.</a><o:p></o:p></div>
Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-8086315129037414922018-01-28T16:45:00.001-05:002018-01-28T17:01:46.112-05:00VPWriting4: Apt & Updated Phrasing for the #MeToo EraThe other day I gave a short presentation where I attempted to summarize my ideas for my third book. (Not sharing any details just yet - but I have a proposal due soon: it's a long-shot!)<br />
<br />
It is at my local Toastmasters, where I'm an active member. Unlike most Toastmasters, I didn't join because I'm petrified of speaking but rather because I love it and don't get to do it enough. I use it as comedians use Open Mike Nights (a blast from my past), that is a chance to work out new material.<br />
<br />
I was talking about presidents and was about to observe what to me is a seminal issue in studying politics and history: is it the man or is it the moment?<br />
<br />
We like to focus on personalities and tactics, but quite often the issues are deeply structural. Jimmy Carter wasn't a lousy politician because he was a technocratic engineer. He was actually a fantastic politician - he came out of <i>nowhere </i>to capture the presidency by finding a message that resonated and meeting huge numbers of people and impressing the hell out of them. He just picked the wrong time to be president.<br />
<br />
But this post is not an extended discussion of Skowronek's work on <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2010/12/reviewing-presidential-leadership-in.html">Presidential Time</a>. This post is about writing.<br />
<br />
I was about to say, "Is it the man or is it the moment?" Then I realized it is sexist. So I said, "Is it the person or is it the moment?" That line doesn't resonate. It has no poetry.<br />
<br />
<b>Politically Correct or Courteous</b><br />
First, let's consider the political correctness factor. Am I just being a wimp to PC thugs? I don't think so. The phrase I used effectively wipes women out of history. I was once schooled when I reflexively referred to scientists as "he." This is an even bigger matter.<br />
<br />
One could tell women to be a little less sensitive, and not assume that an off-hand remark was yet another mark of the patriarchy. But when considering the vast and often off-hand discrimination and devaluation that women face, one should in fact make every possible effort to be sensitive.<br />
<br />
Side-note, I'm a white guy. I'm Jewish, but really that has not been a big source of discrimination in my life - I am hesitant to claim that my experience puts me in a camp with African-Americans, women or any of the groups in America that suffer from serious institutionalized and social discrimination. My wife, by the way is Latina, and that at times is eye opening for me. I hope it has made me more sensitive.<br />
<br />
But, back to me, as a white guy, the whole system works in my favor. It is just that simple. Now, I suffer from imposter syndrome and bouts of self-doubt to a huge degree - and that's with society telling me I'm great. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/11/09/the-tax-on-women-in-national-security/?utm_term=.4c2e5592c171">Imagine if on top of the crippling doubt, I had society shouting at me, denigrating me, or harassing me. I'd crawl into a fetal position. Props to all the terrific women I know (including my wife) who have accomplished so much despite these obstacles.</a><br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0r7Qfi0wxIQF3m8_nsPK-EGSn6bJkNNdnW3JvkFqXO3O8tZ8QnnyJAXkd31INdYP-ZXknz_XwqXQ5sQYaErRWEhaRZ9KlzBTiXzFo7JWMV8VT4H_Pbcvndq2bdqGb5W3jrCU1XjNr1A/s1600/polonius5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="287" data-original-width="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0r7Qfi0wxIQF3m8_nsPK-EGSn6bJkNNdnW3JvkFqXO3O8tZ8QnnyJAXkd31INdYP-ZXknz_XwqXQ5sQYaErRWEhaRZ9KlzBTiXzFo7JWMV8VT4H_Pbcvndq2bdqGb5W3jrCU1XjNr1A/s1600/polonius5.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Words. Words. Words.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
My point is that this is not about political correctness, it is about courtesy.<br />
<br />
<b>Finding a Phrase</b><br />
But now I face a writing problem. The phrase "is it the man or the moment" is so very apt. The phrase "is it the person or is it the moment" is meh. You lose the alliteration and hard <i>p </i>sound at the beginning ruins the flow.<br />
<br />
My first crack at an alternative was "is it the person or is it the period?"<br />
<br />
We've got our alliteration back, but there are too many hard sounds. I particularly don't like the <i>d </i>at the end. It needs to end soft, because the idea is an opening not a closing. Also, moment is a specific thing, period is less clear.<br />
<br />
We can fix it a little by switching and saying, "is it the period or is it the person?"<br />
<br />
Not great, but it actually sounds ok. Except that the point of the phrase "is it the man or is it the moment," is that we think of the key person first but then realize it is really about the context in which they operated. "Is it the period or is it the person," reverses this in a way that defeats the point.<br />
<br />
I came up with another alternative: "Is it the actor or is it the scene?"<br />
<br />
I really like it. Scene is simply a wonderful word, great sound and nicely evocative. Actor too is specific and nails down an idea. The problem is that a great actor can make a lousy scene, and a lousy actor can ruin a great one. If the point is that in many cases great leaders had the fortune to lead at the right time, does this version give the person side of the equation too much credit and agency?<br />
<br />
Developing.Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-76664427430744860962018-01-20T20:48:00.000-05:002018-01-20T20:51:18.003-05:00VPWriting3: Front Burner<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">I'm really appreciating Van Jackson's writing blog <a href="https://warontherocks.com/category/blogs/nuke-your-darlings/">Nuke Your Darlings</a> more and more. I keep finding myself in the same place that he's in.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">I took the holiday week off to restart my efforts to turn my dissertation into a book. I didn't make as much progress as I would have liked, but I made some.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">But I sort of have too many projects and - <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2018/01/entry-26-one-fight-time/">as Jones noted - one fight at a time.</a></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">But I prefer cooking metaphors (not that I cook.) What's on the front burner being stirred and what on the back burner simmering.<br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Let me break it down. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Work Writing</span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">I have writing for work. There'</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">s a paper on regulating robotics that is 90% done. One big knot, some editing, and an ExSum are all that's left. I've been puttering with it for well over a year. Then I have another paper due mid-March on risk communications and robotics. I'll be presenting it at <a href="https://conferences.law.stanford.edu/werobot/">WeRobot2018</a>. Right now at work, I'm trying to finish paper one and read for paper two (<a href="https://warontherocks.com/2018/01/entry-25-stacking-ammo-take-chapters/">stacking ammo as Jackson would say</a>.) It's a lot, but if I finish paper one next week and start writing in February, at 500 words a day I'll have my paper by the end of the month.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Implementation of this plan may not go so neatly, but, we'll see.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">I have a third, fourth, fifth, and sixth paper in mind afterwards - we'll see.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Work works, I have dedicated time for it.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br /><b>Side-Projects</b><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">But my side-writing...</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Besides my VP book, I have an idea for another book. It's timely, but not super urgent. Still, I should get it going. So, wake up early and write for an hour before heading to work. On the day I telework and on Sunday I write longer. At night do background reading - stacking ammo - for the second book. That works. Except it leaves no time for other projects.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">And I have lots of ideas.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Also, there’s another book. I need to finish up a book on Pakistan that I was writing for my last job. The book is 90% done, but 10% of a book is still a lot of work. And it just needs to get finished.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">And some deadlines came up for my third book - American Political Science Association conference and a Fellowship. I'm not ready to start writing, but this is pretty critical spadework and it requires time.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">So, VP book gets pushed to the back burner. Pakistan book (which in part relies on a co-author - when I get stuff to edit, I turn it around right away) goes to the front, but I crunch on an upcoming deadline for the third book (that's in a week and a half.)</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">Hopefully Pakistan book is done in a month or so, then back to the VP book. Hopefully, I finish it up in a few months and can turn to the third book (assuming it is accepting for the conference or the fellowship proposal.)</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">But meanwhile, I have a bunch of op-eds I want to write. I have this idea about the State Department, and what about a one year review of the Pence Vice Presidency, oh and the Future of AI Commission. Sigh. But all of this takes time.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">I guess I should take <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2018/01/entry-26-one-fight-time/">Van Jackson's advice</a>, (derived from the fifth rule of <i>Fight Club</i>): <u>one book at a time</u>!</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">So, poking at the long-simmering third book for just a bit. Then Pakistan book up front, and the VP book will have to simmer. Op-eds etc. will just have to wait.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">But even still, it is a lot of stuff to cram into my side-hustle. Plus carpool, commuting and just life. I'm kind of secretly hoping the government shuts down for a little and I can focus on this stuff...</span></span>Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-11938908964910150732018-01-14T14:16:00.002-05:002018-01-15T08:13:57.979-05:00Oprah in the Oval Office? What does it really take to be President?After an <a href="http://www.oprah.com/own/oprahs-acceptance-speech-at-the-golden-globes-full-transcript">electrifying speech at the Golden Globes</a> there is sudden excitement that Oprah Winfrey could run for president. The immediate questions are: Does she want to run? Could she win? I don't know. From my perspective, the interesting question is how she might function as president. Really, it is an opportunity to analyze what being president entails, using Oprah as a test case.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2017/12/new-partial-paradigm-for-president-vp.html">Quick recap of where I'm coming from. My dissertation asked the question of why the vice president went from nothing (a figure of limited consequence) to a leading presidential advisor. The key factor is that for the past 40-plus years we have been electing outsiders, individuals with limited experience in DC -- mostly governors. They have faced steep learning curves in office and turned to their vice presidents (who have consistently been DC insiders) for advice.</a> I am in the process of re-working my dissertation into a book that turns this question upside-down and tries to clarify the nature of this insider advice.<br />
<br />
In the meantime however, we have engaged in this <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2016/05/veepstakes-insiders-outsider-and.html">tremendous experiment of electing not a mere outsider, but a actual amateur who has no political experience whatsoever.</a> My thinking is that a true amateur, no matter how extraordinarily skilled, will struggle with the presidency.<br />
<br />
<b>Formidable/Extraordinary</b><br />
The place to begin is evaluating Oprah Winfrey's skills and capabilities. It is difficult to overstate them. She is very, very famous (a household name) and very, very rich (a multi-billionaire.) There are other people who are very, very famous but they are not also billionaires. There are other billionaires (about 2000), but only a very few of them could be described as famous. Certainly being famous makes it easier to get rich but off-hand I cannot think of someone who is famous who has also made billions.<br />
<br />
One of the few people who is both very, very famous and very, very rich is Donald Trump. This comparison only emphasizes Oprah's truly astounding achievements. Trump was born very rich and devoted his energies to becoming famous. His business career is checkered, but give the devil his due, Trump has a certain genius for celebrity. That isn't the same as being a genius, and being very rich in the greatest city in the world made it easier to obtain publicity.<br />
<br />
Oprah was not born wealthy - quite the opposite. If she had a achieved a small fraction of her current wealth or fame she would be extraordinarily successful. That she entered the very, very top in two different areas is an astounding testament to her talent and will.<br />
<br />
The skills she developed in achieving her success would serve her well in the White House. As a journalist and TV-host she had to process a great deal of information quickly and communicate both information and emotion to large groups and individuals. In both of her careers she had to think strategically, make decisions, and set priorities. As a business-person she had to manage information flows and organizations. Put simply, if any amateur could step into the White House and be effective, it would be Oprah!<br />
<br />
<b>Learning Curves</b><br />
It's time for a silly thought experiment. Let's pretend that Oprah decides to go into oil prospecting. Oprah Oil has a nice ring. She isn't just investing in oil companies, she is buying land, drilling for oil, and getting it to market. (I know this is utterly illogical, but it's a thought experiment!)<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjECxMCxBagUYP-liLACB_dThL1ixL_OnOUUWUjGLEUTS7mPV7CzZ3iLe6a2a0Sr4OyrYsIVhkhNV12CijNnHHFfmgiWU8MFvUDqg1T1iyie5DDF5AGjfoAIopDpnx2mSRPqybCvgqKSw/s1600/201505-omag-otalk-michelle-949x534.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="534" data-original-width="949" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjECxMCxBagUYP-liLACB_dThL1ixL_OnOUUWUjGLEUTS7mPV7CzZ3iLe6a2a0Sr4OyrYsIVhkhNV12CijNnHHFfmgiWU8MFvUDqg1T1iyie5DDF5AGjfoAIopDpnx2mSRPqybCvgqKSw/s320/201505-omag-otalk-michelle-949x534.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.8px; text-align: center;">Who would face the shorter learning curve on the Oval?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
To be a good oil-person, Oprah would need to learn a lot about geology, mining engineering, energy logistics, and local environmental regulations - and probably a bunch of other stuff. Presumably, with her vast fame, she would have little difficulty raising money or recruiting talent.<br />
<br />
If it is so easy to recruit talent, why can't she just hire the best people?<br />
<br />
Of course she can, but how do you know the best people are in fact the best. Everyone thinks their doctor is really good - but are they? It is mathematically impossible for everyone's doctor to be good and how would someone evaluate this, what is the criteria?<br />
<br />
Back to Oprah Oil: the best prospectors might not know the particular area in question or have certain preferred geological formations. The best drilling chiefs may have preferred approaches, etc. Ultimately, in this thought experiment, Oprah will need to learn from her mistakes in the oil business so that she can judge the advice she is receiving and make good decisions. Maybe you see where this is going...<br />
<br />
<b>Principal-Agent Problem</b><br />
Quick bit of theory here. I am trying to show the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principal%E2%80%93agent_problem">classic principal-agent problem</a>. Stated simply, when you hire/task someone to do a job for you - how can you be sure they are doing it well. Are they serving your interests, or their interests? Are they goofing off or working? Are they actually good at what they do?<br />
<br />
If you spend all of your time monitoring your subordinates, you will have no time for your own work. Further, at the executive level there is a vast hierarchy. You can monitor subordinate executives, but down in the bowels of the organization it can be very hard to know exactly what is going on. Further, the subordinates may be performing functions in which the executive has limited expertise. The head of our oil company may know a great deal about oil production and transport - but not much about IT.<br />
<br />
<b>What Presidents Do</b><br />
The first thing a president has to do is deal with people, either in mass (in speeches or on TV) or in small groups in ceremonial events and meetings. At the center of being a politician is getting people to like you. It can be exhausting, in part because it is an endless requirement. (Gives some insight to the introverted Nixon sitting in total silence on a boat with friends.) For some politicians it comes easily, for others it is hard work. Oprah undoubtedly can do this, although there will still be a learning curve.<br />
<br />
Presidents also have to make big decisions. A president cannot be an expert in all of the policy issues that are addressed at the White House, but they need to know if a policy makes sense, is workable, and actually achieves the desired ends. At the same time, the president has to consider the politics. The optimal policy may not be politically feasible. Further, the tactical decisions made such as the media campaign or legislative strategy need to be considered. It isn't just, will Congress pass it - how does this policy affect other priorities in terms of the budget, political optics, and legislative calendar. A really good chief of staff can make all of this go, but you have to be certain you have a really good chief of staff. Such uber-competent and loyal figures are rare.<br />
<br />
All of this gets even harder in foreign affairs - exponentially! Besides the multiple complexities of domestic politics, the president has to consider the multiple complexities of the other country (and of other countries interested in the doings of this first country.) I've written elsewhere, international relations move in time and space.<br />
<br />
Further, in foreign affairs, the instruments often have to be carefully considered. Are the tools being deployed adequate to the desired ends? The tools of statecraft are complex. As one of my interviewees, an individual with vast experience in Washington, explained:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #fefefe;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Things don’t automatically occur to you on a Chinese menu, you have to understand each instrument. Very few people walk into office understanding the economic, political, and military instruments available to the president. There are two ways to get this knowledge. One is to walk in the door with it. The other is to have them explained to you.</span></span></blockquote>
In her terrific work, <a href="https://elliott.gwu.edu/saunders">Professor Elizabeth Saunders</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/07/27/mitch-mcconnell-thinks-you-dont-need-experience-to-be-president-heres-why-hes-wrong/?utm_term=.36dd217d0a69">explains how presidential experience in foreign affairs is important.</a> It is experience that allows president's to more effectively evaluate advice and plans and monitor subordinates. Frankly, to a great extent this applies to domestic affairs, as outlined above, as well.<br />
<br />
So this is at the core of my dissertation. Outsider presidents, usually governors, are on the whole extraordinarily capable people but they struggle in the White House. As governors they have a reasonably good handle on domestic policy, although it gets harder. The media scrutiny in DC is far greater than in state capitals. The bureaucracy is much bigger and Congress is a more formidable body than any state legislature. The learning curve in foreign affairs is even steeper.<br />
<br />
So where does this leave President Oprah? First let's look at a celebrity turned politician and then president.<br />
<br />
<b>Lessons from Reagan</b><br />
Reagan was a celebrity who ended up as a pretty effective president. Before the presidency he served two terms as governor of California, so that he was pretty well grounded in how to be a politician - from horse trading with the legislature to interacting with the media. It is worth noting that Reagan had also served for years as the president of the Screen Actors Guild - which seems like a pretty useful experience. As a corporate spokesperson for GE Reagan delivered thousands of speeches at GE plants and Rotary Clubs and such around the country. <i>He wrote these speeches!</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
This was more than just an exercise in rhetoric - although that shouldn't be underestimated. (George Schultz remembers giving Reagan a copy of speech he intended to give. The President looked it over and with a few edits, transformed it from an op-ed to be read into a speech to be heard.)<br />
<br />
In this process, Reagan worked out how he saw the world and where he stood on issues. He schooled himself on policy.<br />
<br />
When, at 70, Reagan was inaugurated, he had been preparing for two decades. He made it all seem easy because he had actually worked very hard for a very long time.<br />
<br />
Oprah could master these skills as well. But time is not on her side. It seems unlikely she could gain the needed skills by 2020 and in a few weeks Oprah will turn 64. Does she have a decade to invest in learning politics and be a viable candidate? Would a shorter apprenticeship be sufficient?<br />
<br />
Of course, she could still run and win. This analysis is not about the political horse-race. Rather, it is an attempt to think about what we need presidents to do and why experience in comparable roles is important. <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2017/12/new-partial-paradigm-for-president-vp.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+VeepCritique+%28Veep+Critique%29">I am still trying to get to my fundamental question of what is the unique advice insider VPs give to outsider presidents <i>and </i>what this tells us about the presidency.</a>Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-84484063040587408552018-01-04T12:14:00.001-05:002018-01-04T12:23:03.287-05:00VPWriting2: Progress So FarSo my plan was to take time off on the holiday season to restart my project of turning my PhD into a book. But I also wanted to play. I had this wonderful vision of getting up early (about 6) and with a cup of coffee knocking off a quick blog entry as a sort of warm-up lap. Then, work on the book for about three hours, before spending an hour on one of my other writing projects. Then maybe an hour of reading for yet another project followed by a good work-out and lunch. Then my wife and I could binge-watch away the afternoon and evening. I'd do some other reading, and maybe play computer games (I always say I will, but never do.)<br />
<br />
It was a good plan. Frankly, it is how I would live my life if I could (but I have a day job - bills gotta get paid).<br />
<br />
Anyway it didn't work. On many days stuff came up - errands had to be run or other details of life had to be addressed. Some of my other writing projects would not stay within their allotted times. Also, I don't like going to be early and getting up early. I know I need to, but it just goes against my preferences and habits.<br />
<br />
But the biggest issue was that when I was writing, I wasn't necessarily writing. I was inspired to write this stuff by <a href="https://warontherocks.com/category/blogs/nuke-your-darlings/">Van Jackson's journal of his quest to crank out a book in six months.</a> It was comforting to know that I wasn't the only one who isn't always writing when he is writing. Some of this is necessary, some is procrastination.<br />
<br />
(Next entry on how that sometimes goes awry.)<br />
<br />
Still, I did the math. Consistent production of 500 words a day (six days a week - I don't work on Saturdays) would be a book, a half-dozen long articles, and about 20 op-eds a year. For sheer writing time, that should only be an hour and a half a day. Nothing. Granted, you also need time for editing and reading - but you should be able to find that in the other 5-9 hours of your work day. It all seems so simple, but it is so hard to do.<br />
<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZnO1lb9sToamHrJXuprAWEARGHHXT_rlEAPy2-QiLCU00qq7vH5hLe4As63MRHIoUPv8wpUKguRDBLa2ffLv8SDOQBbT2Dd1JrObzZbmWe4N82zwT0jMdNKr8YQ9E-MOrKl0RIRbsRA/s1600/IMG_8708.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZnO1lb9sToamHrJXuprAWEARGHHXT_rlEAPy2-QiLCU00qq7vH5hLe4As63MRHIoUPv8wpUKguRDBLa2ffLv8SDOQBbT2Dd1JrObzZbmWe4N82zwT0jMdNKr8YQ9E-MOrKl0RIRbsRA/s320/IMG_8708.JPG" width="240" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The quarry - yet another writing metaphor</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Anyway, the VP book isn't writing, it's almost all editing (with a dose of updating) so word count is not the right metric of progress. Still, I broke the seal. The project got started. The juices began to simmer. I began to see how the chapters needed to be reworked from dissertation to book. I began to see how to turn them from a series of proofs to a story and what kinds of materials I would need to connect things up. Lots of different metaphors for writing here.<br />
<br />
Unfortunately, I may have to put this on a back burner yet again - for now. (More in a future entry.) Now, on this snowy day, to attack a real and immediate writing project.<br />
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Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-19567705895093229902017-12-29T11:16:00.000-05:002017-12-29T11:16:13.096-05:00VPWriting1: Inspired to write, something else...2017 was not a great year for me, especially on the writing front. 2013-2016 were. In 2014 I finished my PhD. In 2015 I wrote the better part of a book on South Asia (more on that anon). In 2016 I wrote the equivalent of a book in <a href="http://robots.law.miami.edu/2016/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Mannes_RobotGovernanceFinal.pdf">conference</a> <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3025193">papers</a> and internal white papers (also I had a <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2016/10/vice-presidents-and-foreign-policy-a-forward-looking-review-of-the-record/">pretty good article in War on the Rocks</a>.)<br />
<br />
In 2017 - so far - I dithered with a couple of papers that were almost done, but still not quite - maybe I'll finish them on Sunday...<br />
<br />
But hanging over all of this is my dissertation, the topic of this blog. It needs to be a book. There are even publishers willing to talk to me about. But it has to get done. Anyone can tell you that a dissertation is not a book and my writing skills are good enough (not amazing, but pretty good) that with some work the book can be more readable than the dissertation by several orders of magnitude. Plus, while the book won't be as analytical as the dissertation, the fundamental question has inverted.<br />
<br />
In the dissertation I asked, <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2017/12/new-partial-paradigm-for-president-vp.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+VeepCritique+%28Veep+Critique%29">"Why did the VP go from nothing to something." But now I want to know, "What does the President gets from the VP?"</a> The first question has been answered adequately - not just by me. The second seems more interesting and insightful.<br />
<br />
My dissertation is the raw material, but I have to break it apart and reconstruct it. It was hard enough assembling the 130K words of the dissertation. Now, I need to break it all down and rewrite it. It's a lot of work, and I have a day job (which also has a lot of writing projects.) Doing this takes time and I have not had tons of it between a real job, a long commute, and kids who need to be driven places constantly.<br />
<br />
I thought I would take the holiday week off and really invest some time into the project. I have a decent intro and my Mondale chapter is in pretty good shape. But that's been my status quo for over two years. I thought if I put in some serious time up front and sort of "broke the seal" I could get into a rhythm and bring the project together.<br />
<br />
This involved going to bed and waking up early (both of which I hate) and getting serious writing hours in each morning. It hasn't gone so well.<br />
<br />
Over at <i>War on the Rocks</i>, the <a href="https://warontherocks.com/author/van-jackson/">eminent Van Jackson</a> has been <a href="https://warontherocks.com/category/blogs/nuke-your-darlings/">journaling his efforts to write a book in six months</a>. Honestly, it's been heartening since he's terrific and like me knows his topic back and forth (so he isn't doing fundamental research, just writing.) Still, some of his good days are only a few hundred words and he too loses hours to rabbit holes and anomie.<br />
<br />
So, in that spirit, I thought I too would share my writing experiences, intermittently. Of course in my case, this might just be another procrastination mechanism - writing this when I should be, you know, writing my book. But, here the words flow, whole post was less than 30 minutes and it is nice to get this stuff off my chest.Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-49042920389730429072017-12-24T07:57:00.000-05:002017-12-24T07:57:28.206-05:00New Partial Paradigm for President-VP Relationship<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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I recently gave a presentation summarizing my research on the vice president and the next stage in<br />
this research. My regular readers (should I have any) know that the central premise of my work is that <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2008/07/mccains-vp-choice-national-security.html">outsider presidents find themselves relying on insider vice presidents.</a> But I keep finding that I want to know more, <i>what</i> exactly is it that these insider vice presidents know that no one else can tell them?<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="true" frameborder="0" height="389" mozallowfullscreen="true" src="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/e/2PACX-1vT_qtWhfpIsRxBPC_f5fULdyWxXH9BkOA3pPTf6K4NpSZlTG0LPDEvgO7lkDrASlTiK3k8820_0SpUh/embed?start=false&loop=false&delayms=3000" webkitallowfullscreen="true" width="480"></iframe><br />
<br />
I'm still wrestling with that question, with mixed success. But in putting this presentation together I did find a common trope that supplements with outsider/insider paradigm.<br />
<br />
<b>Policy & Politics</b><br />
Usually, one of the two is more focused on policy and the other is more focused on politics. Carter, the engineer/technocrat famously hated to consider things politically - he wanted the optimal solution. Mondale was his "invaluable political barometer." The Clinton-Gore relationship was almost the exact opposite. Few figures in recent history have had the kind of politically sensitive antenna of Bill Clinton. Gore, on the other hand, was the policy-wonk. The Obama-Biden relationship appeared similar to Clinton-Gore, with Joe Biden, a talented retail politician, supporting the famously cool and analytical Barack Obama.<br />
<br />
The Republicans on the other hand seemed to elect presidents more focused on the politics, with vice presidents focused on the policy. Reagan was famously big picture, while his Vice President took on details. His son, Bush 43, took on politics, while his super-staffer VP, Cheney, focused on the hard policy issues.<br />
<br />
Although Bush-Quayle is an outlier, since Bush was an insider who did not particularly need his vice president's advice, he remained a policy-focused President, letting his VP tend to political affairs.<br />
<br />
Seems like a pretty neat way to characterize the President-VP relationship.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Paradigmatic Problems</b><br />
The problem is that this explanation is much, much too neat. None of these figures - who rose to great heights in national politics - can be considered unsophisticated on political or policy matters. It is more of a continuum, with Gore, Carter, and Cheney on a particularly hard end of the non-political and most others closer to the middle.<br />
<br />
Still not happy, because it simplifies too much. What do we mean by politics, anyway? Cheney, was extremely astute in legislative strategy. When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, Carter called for an embargo on grain sales to the Soviet Union. Mondale, worried about the Iowa primaries (Ted Kennedy was challenging Carter for the nomination) advised against it. Carter thought the the embargo was the right thing to do. But he also thought the American people would ultimately rally around the president. Mondale had a tough time campaigning in Iowa - but Carter was right!<br />
<br />
Gore was not a terribly effective liaison to Capitol Hill (he had served there for a dozen years, but was did not take to the place like Mondale or Biden.) But, Gore pushed himself forward as the spokesman on NAFTA and helped deliver the win.<br />
<br />
It might be more accurate to say that different people absorb and process inputs differently and that presidents and vice presidents ideally complement one another. But that's pretty generic and hence why we only have a partial paradigm.Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-57067701193448213742017-10-11T17:20:00.003-04:002017-10-11T17:20:58.071-04:00VPWatch5: The VP Must Kneel Before the PresidentThere has been much news about the vice president recently. And I've been so busy (<a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2017/09/vpwatch4-compare-contrast-potusvp-on.html">with Jewish holidays mostly</a> - and I go offline for another in just a few minutes!) so that I haven't even finished my <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2017/09/vpwatch3-pences-role-part-1-access.html">assessment of Pence's influence in the current administration.</a><br />
<br />
The VP too has been busy, what with the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/05/vp-mike-pence-american-leadership-in-space-will-be-assured.html">new Space Council he's chairing</a> and all the travel to <a href="http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-northern-california-fires-live-pence-major-disaster-declaration-1507658219-htmlstory.html">fires</a>, <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/newswires/news/world/latest-vp-pence-visits-church-puerto-rico-article-1.3545598">floods</a>, and <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/07/556396555/pence-in-las-vegas-we-are-united-in-our-resolve-to-end-such-evil">other scenes of horror</a> (good work - seriously!)<br />
<br />
But there was something else the vice president did that dominated the headlines... something at a football game.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIeP0eg3nko63itlbyBk47PN9Xet07kLXbsyupibID9CAEUXIu2RZqp0ZTG8WrIIuH9qdRB_RotjdKV-ic54esPracvBnf0XpFoBi3XE_BJieMvLdQncPpeSbFj7yvTKFkdlXHZ81lbg/s1600/la-live-updates-nfl-week-5-chargers-vice-president-pence-leaves-colts-49ers-1507483820.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="454" data-original-width="600" height="151" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIeP0eg3nko63itlbyBk47PN9Xet07kLXbsyupibID9CAEUXIu2RZqp0ZTG8WrIIuH9qdRB_RotjdKV-ic54esPracvBnf0XpFoBi3XE_BJieMvLdQncPpeSbFj7yvTKFkdlXHZ81lbg/s200/la-live-updates-nfl-week-5-chargers-vice-president-pence-leaves-colts-49ers-1507483820.jpg" width="200" /></a>Pence walked out of a Colts game when the 49ers kneeled during the National Anthem. This was part of the President of the United State's feud with NFL players who are choosing to kneel during the National Anthem to protest racism. This has been discussed <i>ad nauseum </i>and I have nothing to add. Although, as a Baltimorean, I have some <a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2012/05/debating-propriety-of-yelling-oh-during.html">pretty strong thoughts</a> on the Star-Spangled Banner that have absolutely nothing to do with the current controversy.<br />
<br />
My interest is the doings of the vice president.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/loyalty-to-trump-thrusts-pence-deeper-into-nfl-controversy/2017/10/09/1cc488b0-ad0e-11e7-9e58-e6288544af98_story.html?utm_term=.5d0e07052f0c">Reportedly Vice President Pence is a really big Colts fan.</a> But, when the President heard the VP was going to a game (not just any game, Peyton Manning's number was being retired), the President instructed the Vice President to leave if any players kneeled during the National Anthem. Since several members of the visiting 49ers had been kneeling all season, the outcome was pretty clear.<br />
<br />
Pence left after the Star-Spangled Banner, missing the game and stirring up controversy. The President, in his inimitable way, blew a little story into a big one, tweeting:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
I asked VP Pence to leave stadium if any players kneeled, disrespecting our country. I am proud of him and Second Lady Karen.</blockquote>
Whether or not Pence really wanted to walk out, or was doing so at the President's behest, the tweet robbed the VP of any dignity in his walk out.<br />
<br />
Before our more civilized era (since Carter/Mondale) Presidents routinely humiliated Vice Presidents. LBJ's treatment of Hubert Humphrey was particularly cruel. Nixon (<a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2014/08/mysteries-of-nixon.html">having suffered at the hands of Eisenhower</a>) was pretty terrible to Agnew (who, in fairness, was legitimately awful.)<br />
<br />
What's odd here is that it is not clear that the President wanted to humiliate Pence, but rather that he wanted to make the event about himself. His cruelty was casual and backhanded rather than LBJ's systematic viciousness towards Humphrey (who on some level the Texan feared.)<br />
<br />
So what should Pence have done? Let's pretend that Pence would not have walked out on the game if given the choice. (He didn't walk out on <i>Hamilton </i>when the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/arts-and-entertainment/wp/2016/11/20/pence-says-he-wasnt-offended-by-hamilton-as-trump-continues-to-demand-an-apology/?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.c022caef6fda">cast addressed him directly</a> with a political message.) But defying the president is not a minor thing to do - especially for a vice president.<br />
<br />
The only way for the vice president to influence policy is through access to the president and presidents do not have a lot of patience for disloyal VPs. This President may be touchier about loyalty than most, but really this applies across the board. The VP is the one person in the administration who cannot be fired - thus disloyalty is particularly problematic.<br />
<br />
The VP could take stand, spending their term isolated from the president over at the Naval Observatory, perhaps issuing public statements against the administration. This would probably not go well. The president (any president) would savage an openly disloyal VP. And what would this gain the VP? Not much. The president still has significant support in the party and might receive an uptick in support from the opposing party - but hardly enough to offset the significant ideological divides.<br />
<br />
If the president were in trouble (i.e. being impeached) the VP's smartest play is quiet loyalty. A VP too publicly ready for the president to leave office will not be well-regarded. Ford and Gore stayed out of things and let the process move forward on its own.<br />
<br />
We are not near impeachment. That's a reality. The VP believes he can still be useful, fixing what he can in a dysfunctional administration. To be effective the VP needs access to the President. And for that, when called upon, having no significant Constitutional authority and, according to <a href="http://untermeyer.com/">Chase Untermeyer</a>, only one true resource to offer the president - time, the VP must kneel before the chief of the executive branch.<br />
Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-39052183693909666242017-09-20T14:23:00.000-04:002017-09-20T14:23:36.215-04:00VPWatch4: Compare & Contrast POTUS/VP on Rosh HashanahI know I just wrote a post yesterday analyzing the role of the Vice President in this White House that requires a follow-up. But, like Jews around the world, my mind is elsewhere. We are entering the High Holidays, the Days of Awe. Tonight begins Rosh Hashanah, literally the "Head of the Year." It is the start of a new year and a <a href="http://forfathersonly.blogspot.com/2011/10/cosmic-pause.html">time of introspection</a>, but also a time to ask forgiveness.<br />
<br />
Political leaders in the United States typically send greetings to the American Jewish community on its major holidays. There is nothing terribly remarkable about these greetings. They are like thank you notes for gifts, courteous and necessary. I would not draw any policy conclusions from these statements about these leaders positions on Israel or any other issue of concern to the American Jewish community - or anyone for that.<br />
<br />
But I did find comparing the Presidential and Vice Presidential statements instructive.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZZ2a29T-cpo5PWHqvjYXlvPanGNg7kdalUKOXAprXLICkPrK7HuBLGH3dfj1U1u0AwYNadaYhuXRlUbYYdJcO6s7kDOevYoPDBDBPe6FHLRnPNLzF4yphwubceXI-MjsqIcCB5xuH3g/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-09-20+at+1.47.23+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="717" data-original-width="560" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZZ2a29T-cpo5PWHqvjYXlvPanGNg7kdalUKOXAprXLICkPrK7HuBLGH3dfj1U1u0AwYNadaYhuXRlUbYYdJcO6s7kDOevYoPDBDBPe6FHLRnPNLzF4yphwubceXI-MjsqIcCB5xuH3g/s320/Screen+Shot+2017-09-20+at+1.47.23+PM.png" width="248" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjH2X_QrWEwuixyHoSoQdFa6ErXZ-6I5HS-SHnJafQFbvGdIMIGsymgwLTALBa9MmP2Kzrwt17oc2PVcb9p9w_lQKof6O3_uF6mOXJJtWY7UUSvNUfuAYLkZZ3vKd2YczrgT1u-QYTEmQ/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-09-20+at+1.48.05+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="552" data-original-width="564" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjH2X_QrWEwuixyHoSoQdFa6ErXZ-6I5HS-SHnJafQFbvGdIMIGsymgwLTALBa9MmP2Kzrwt17oc2PVcb9p9w_lQKof6O3_uF6mOXJJtWY7UUSvNUfuAYLkZZ3vKd2YczrgT1u-QYTEmQ/s320/Screen+Shot+2017-09-20+at+1.48.05+PM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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The President's statement is perfectly fine. It briefly mentions the purpose of the holiday, had a nod to Jewish history and the place of the Jewish people in the world, and ends by mentioning the deep bond between the United States and Israel. I have nothing to criticize about it.</div>
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The Vice President's statement, in comparison, is a bit deeper. Only at the end does it give the obligatory best wishes to the Jewish people on their holiday. Instead we get a short homily about the central concept of the Days of Awe - Teshuvah. The statement then extends it to wishes for introspection and a better year for al.</div>
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On the one hand, the VP's statement might be a bit <i>too</i> religious and not sufficiently political. But I'm rather impressed with it. It makes specific references to the meaning of the holiday and relates them more broadly to all humanity. It has a voice in way that perhaps the President's statement does not.</div>
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Within the tangled channels of White House decision-making, the Vice President's office is a fast cruiser amongst a thicket of dreadnoughts. It is smaller than OMB or NSC, but it can choose its fights and focus almost exclusively on meeting the needs of its principal. Thus, it can find a unique voice.</div>
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Of course Presidents can usually attract the finest communications talent. Another possible conclusion is that the White House staff is starting to function adequately, but perhaps not at a very high level.</div>
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Of course that's reading quite a bit into a relatively minor item. Perhaps my Teshuvah is to lighten up and get a life (or at least spend the one I have on something important!)</div>
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Shana Tova Umetuka. To a happy and sweet new year.</div>
Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-7537518192572150342017-09-19T07:24:00.002-04:002017-09-19T10:24:31.674-04:00VPWatch3: Pence's Role Part 1: AccessSo, here's an overdue installment of <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2017/08/vpwatch1-vp-as-signal-experiment.html">VPWatch, my little project to understand the current White House by tracking the Vice President.</a><br />
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Two critical terms to consider are access and influence. The latter demands the former, but is not sufficient. If the Vice President cannot see the President or engage with the policy process, the VP cannot hope to have much policy influence. However, as Dan Quayle demonstrated, regular access to the President is no guarantee of influence.<br />
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<b>Assessing Access</b><br />
Pence has access and a lot of it. Account after account mentions that Pence is at key meetings. When the national security team delivered "American Power 101" to the anti-globalist President at "The Tank" at the Pentagon - <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/how-trumps-advisers-schooled-him-on-globalism/2017/09/18/6d14495e-9c47-11e7-b2a7-bc70b6f98089_story.html?utm_term=.0ada33ad5cfa">Pence was there</a>.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioMOMne1iR7ltVImnBxj0vcG8WKOqHxxIK5AnD6TvrUegq6YwUrINT45sEjayt-DGKQ1WBDjAMArh17CwzDuX0nw_bVWTiZwnbWv3sdPh52NZNQnrccYkx50msXZtuANjVxvPISxo9QQ/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-09-19+at+7.23.24+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="846" data-original-width="1150" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioMOMne1iR7ltVImnBxj0vcG8WKOqHxxIK5AnD6TvrUegq6YwUrINT45sEjayt-DGKQ1WBDjAMArh17CwzDuX0nw_bVWTiZwnbWv3sdPh52NZNQnrccYkx50msXZtuANjVxvPISxo9QQ/s320/Screen+Shot+2017-09-19+at+7.23.24+AM.png" width="320" /></a>The infamous meeting where the President shared his displeasure with the Attorney General - <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/14/us/politics/jeff-sessions-trump.html">Pence was there.</a><br />
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The meeting with Congressional leadership in which the President decided Chuck and Nancy were his new best friends - <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/with-little-to-lose-democrats-cautiously-share-the-drivers-seat-with-trump/2017/09/16/09eb2fca-9a47-11e7-87fc-c3f7ee4035c9_story.html?utm_term=.2b125bdee5aa">Pence was there</a>.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/trump-to-make-un-debut-with-speech-offering-warmth-to-allies/2017/09/16/1be241a8-9aa8-11e7-af6a-6555caaeb8dc_story.html?utm_term=.5efd8da00ed4">Pence is up at the U.N. with the President right now.</a> <i>(UPDATE: The Vice President is popping back to DC for the Senate Republican Policy lunch. Emphasizing his important role as legislative liaison. See below.)</i><br />
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So the Vice President has access in this administration.<br />
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<b>Pence's Proxies</b><br />
Another critical factor in understanding the VP's role is the roles of their allies on the White House staff. This goes way back. In the Carter administration, the President specifically instructed the National Security and Domestic Policy Advisors to appoint Mondale aides as top deputies. Carter wanted to ensure the Vice President was fully engaged. This trend has continued. Reagan appointed VP Bush's close friend Jim Baker as White House chief of staff. This trend has continued and reached something of an <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2011/02/rise-of-bidenites.html">apogee in the Obama White House</a>.<br />
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Such well-placed aides not only insure that the VP is engaged in the policy process, but are a source of influence in their own right.<br />
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At the same time, the <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2013/06/rise-of-vice-presidents-staff.html">Vice President's staff have played an expanded role in the White House, sometimes becoming critical advisors to the President in their own right.</a> Again, going back to the Carter administration, Mondale's chief of staff took on some critical roles (such as over-seeing a veto override task force) on behalf of the President. Al Gore's national security advisor provided became a key figure in national security decisions. This continued and expanded under Bush 43 and Biden, where the Vice President's national security advisor was also a leading advisor to the president.<br />
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Both of these situations reflect the outsider President/insider Vice President paradigm. Presidents with limited Washington experience find that they need insider knowledge to get anything done. This creates opportunities for influence by insider vice presidents, but also increased opportunities for vice presidential staffers with Washington experience.<br />
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So it should follow that Pence allies and staffers are playing an expanded role in the current White House. The former situation is clearly the case, the latter is not as obvious.<br />
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The most notable Pence ally on the White House staff is <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/who-is-marc-short-trump-legislative-liaison-233710">Marc Short, director of legislative affairs</a>, who had been Pence's chief of staff when Pence was a congressman. This is a pretty significant role. It fits the model that, over the past 40 years, VPs have played a significant role in congressional relations. Also worth noting, <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/10/sessions-trump-white-house-242512">Pence - who appears to choose his battles within the White House carefully - weighed in for Short to get the position.</a><br />
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There's another interesting data point, General Kelly, in his efforts to stabilize the White House, has been bringing in more experienced figures. The new <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/06/kelly-trump-washington-insiders-242384">director of presidential advance</a> (that means administering the details of presidential travel) had been Pence's advance director. This is not necessarily a position of political influence, but it does highlight how experienced vice presidential staffers can help bring order to a chaotic outsider-run White House.<br />
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There have not been any reports of Vice Presidential staffers building strong networks in the White House in their own right. That does not mean it has not happened, only that it has not been reported. Pence replaced his long-time low-key chief of staff with <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/08/mike-pence-nick-ayers-241423">Nick Ayers, who had been the key liaison between the Trump campaign and Pence's team in the election.</a> He was brought on to help the VP advocate for his preferred policies within the White House. (There is nothing new under the sun, Mondale's chief of staff Richard Moe focused his energies managing the president-vice president relationship.) While we have not seen much about Ayers, it would be no surprise to see him playing an expanded role in his own right.<br />
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<b>Up on the Hill</b><br />
Since the emergence of what Joel Goldstein calls <a href="https://kansaspress.ku.edu/978-0-7006-2202-3.html">The White House Vice Presidency</a> (that is regular access to decision-making), Capitol Hill has been a primary arena for vice presidential activity. Every vice president from Mondale on had previous Capitol Hill experience and used it on the administration's behalf. <a href="http://untermeyer.com/modern-vice-presidents-play-key-governing-role/">Chase Untermeyer, who served as an assistant to George H.W. Bush both as President and Vice President observed</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The House and Senate are often linked to private clubs or fraternities in which it helps enormously to have been a member and to know the secret handshakes.</blockquote>
Pence has been no exception. Here is a <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jul/30/susan-collins-maine-senator-pence-told-me-boy-are-/">great description</a> of his efforts in the Senate to lobby for the healthcare repeal that gives a sense of how Pence works:<br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-small;"><a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/susan-collins/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;">Ms. Collins</a> said she was talking with Arizona <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/john-mccain/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;">Sen. John McCain</a>, another “no” vote, when she felt a tap on her shoulder. It was <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/mike-pence/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;">Mr. Pence</a>, who was at the U.S. Capitol to break a potential 50-50 tie vote.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-small;">“And he said to me, ‘boy, are you tough,’” <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/susan-collins/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;">Ms. Collins</a> said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “But he softened that by putting his arm around me.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-small;">“He has always been extremely courteous in his conversations with me. He then started talking with <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/john-mccain/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;">John</a>, we were reminiscing in some ways, and then it was obvious he wanted to have a private conversation with <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/john-mccain/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;">John</a> about the bill, so I stepped aside and did not participate,” she said.</span></div>
</blockquote>
<i>So we see that Pence has access, he is in the mix of White House policy-making. But that does not guarantee influence - particularly in the currently chaotic administration. Does any of these vantage points - either personal or by proxy - translate to substantial policy <b>influence</b>?</i><br />
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<i>Stay tuned for Part 2! </i><br />
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Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-45703921073707846402017-08-21T01:57:00.000-04:002017-08-21T20:51:02.190-04:00VPWatch2: Afghanistan Agonistes 2 & Pence's Play<em>Quick note, I have two blogs - this one </em><em>which started out as sort of the commentary track to my dissertation on the vice president, but now is more broadly on presidents, politics, and White House process.</em><em> And then Terrorwonk, which started out on terrorism and has expanded to international affairs, technology, and ideas in general. This particular rant is unique because <a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2017/08/afghanistan-agonistes-1-no-good-choices.html">Part 1 is at TerrorWonk</a> because it is about the policy aspects of Afghanistan. Part 2 is about the struggles in actually making policy on Afghanistan and the Vice President's increasingly significant role.</em><br />
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<i>Also, I was originally going to entitle this <u>Sympathy for the Donald</u>, but my sympathy for the President has evaporated.</i><br />
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The president is really wrestling with making policy towards Afghanistan. There are no good choices.<br />
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But besides the fundamental challenge of choosing what flavor of unpleasantness he wants to spend the rest of his presidency dealing with - the president is also facing institutional barriers to changing policy.<br />
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It is possible that the president is ready to call it quits in Afghanistan. But the National Security Advisor, H.R. McMaster, believes in the nation-building/counter-insurgency mission (and has some pretty serious credibility at it). So when the president asks for options, he keeps getting more counter-insurgency and less withdrawal. It is likely that McMaster has the backing of DoD (and possibly Kelly as well.) The DoD isn't going to want to lose a war it is currently fighting.<br />
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A more skilled president would know a bit more about working the system to obtain more options, but the current denizen of the Oval Office does not possess significant experience on national security issues or with large bureaucracies.<br />
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This frustration with and inability to manipulate the bureaucratic politics may have been one of the reasons the president proposed sending mercenaries.<br />
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<b>Pence's Play</b><br />
And this is where the VP comes in. According to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-20/trump-s-afghanistan-speech-kicks-off-post-bannon-white-house-era">some reports</a>, Pence played a central role in overseeing the policy review process. <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/20/trump-afghanistan-asia-war-241845">While some insiders claim that Pence was allied with McMaster in pushing for more troops</a>, Pence himself stated he played the honest broker role gathering information, mapping out scenarios, and presenting options to the president.<br />
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The first observation is that this implies that the president has a pretty high level of trust in the vice president. <a href="https://apnews.com/e2833cddae714191beb98bc99511ebe6?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP">Pence has been exceptionally loyal and an effective ambassador on the national and global stage.</a> That has built his internal capital with a president who values loyalty, but whose messaging has been plagued with controversy.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUNohwtFgYfo2ca1u2SKZtkkCj_PMX-oMtg25LKkbgmj5t3Q0otmP422uS9PxrO_VNGPu_vNBwV2u3QmYAIxaekOKeSDAJEeQ1ynA_c0iCVDFA7twHaXsyFAvpTp_T8p7bd4anTAf4HQ/s1600/51BH9CrXfdL._SX331_BO1%252C204%252C203%252C200_.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="499" data-original-width="333" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUNohwtFgYfo2ca1u2SKZtkkCj_PMX-oMtg25LKkbgmj5t3Q0otmP422uS9PxrO_VNGPu_vNBwV2u3QmYAIxaekOKeSDAJEeQ1ynA_c0iCVDFA7twHaXsyFAvpTp_T8p7bd4anTAf4HQ/s200/51BH9CrXfdL._SX331_BO1%252C204%252C203%252C200_.jpg" width="133" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Essential history of NSAs</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
It also highlights that there may be problems in the national security process. It is not the case the McMaster is not capable. He is a PhD, best-selling author, successful battlefield commander, and successful counter-insurgency innovator. But if Pence is the honest broker in the process, then it appears that the president does not have complete confidence in his National Security Advisor.<br />
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<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Shadow-Oval-Office-Presidents-Served/dp/1416553207">Any review of the history of the NSA highlights the importance of a close working relationship with the president.</a> Without this, no NSA can hope to be successful. Although, if McMaster was a constant proponent of sending more troops - which the president did not really want to do - then charging Pence with guiding the process actually makes sense.<br />
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<br />
Finally, Pence's role echoes that of Biden. Obama too engaged in a top to bottom review of the war in Afghanistan. Knowing that the military was pushing for large-scale, open ended troop commitments, <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2010/09/biden-in-afghan-review-running-new-play.html">Obama charged his vice president with creating alternatives.</a> The point was to give the president time and space to make his own decision and the vice president had the standing to do it. Except that in the current case, it looks like the president - rather than getting new options - ended up with pretty much the policy his NSA was pushing.<br />
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From the outside, it appears that Pence does have some opportunities for influence. VPs always have to choose their battles. Gore stayed out of healthcare and Bush Sr. stayed out of economics policy. Cheney wasn't really interested in domestic affairs at all. With this president, who is um... mercurial, so that policy can change very quickly, it is even more important for the VP to choose where to use this hard won internal capital.<br />
<br />
If this reporting on the Vice President's role in the Afghanistan review is accurate, it also reflects on the <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2008/07/mccains-vp-choice-national-security.html">outsider/insider paradigm</a>. This concept (at the core of my research) is that presidents with limited Washington experience turn to vice presidents with this experience for help. Trump has <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2016/05/veepstakes-insiders-outsider-and.html">less political or Washington experience than any president in history</a>. It would make perfect sense that he would turn to his vice president for assistance with the thorniest problems.Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-6931797341221079072017-08-17T08:40:00.001-04:002017-08-17T09:58:31.858-04:00VPWatch1: VP as Signal - An ExperimentWe are watching an embattled presidency. Approval ratings, given a reasonably strong economy, are astoundingly low. The White House is in a constant state of leaky turmoil. And the president is frankly divorced from any understanding of basic political inputs and outputs. I could say more - <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2016/09/robertson-davies-on-trump.html">my thoughts on that man in the White House are no secret</a> - but my point here is to be analytical.<br />
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One of my themes in studying the vice presidency is using it as a lens to understand the presidency. I thought it would be a good time to start really watching the vice president. I've started tweeting a few items daily, and here is my first blog. Probably a few times a week.<br />
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But there is an analytical challenge. Over the course of several presidencies the vice presidency can be a useful indicator. But, as a short-term indicator it is more difficult to say. The signal is weak. First, most of what can be known comes out after presidents have left office and memoirs have been written. Vice presidents have traditionally kept their counsel to the president private. This was a precedent established by Mondale and - for the most part - kept since. Because of this, what we know about vice presidents may not reflect the most critical issues. Mondale (again) was involved in many things, but information about his involvement on the Soviet Union or Iran was limited. Cheney had little to say about "No Child Left Behind" or <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/george-w-bush-pepfar-saves-millions-of-lives-in-africa-keep-it-fully-funded/2017/04/07/2089fa46-1ba7-11e7-9887-1a5314b56a08_story.html?utm_term=.9ce9a6f8fce5">PEPFAR</a>, two of Bush's primary initiatives.<br />
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On the other hand, when Israeli-Egyptian negotiations were flagging, Carter summoned Mondale from the White House to join the parlay at Camp David. From the perspective of studying the vice president, it highlights the value Carter placed on his counsel. From the perspective of the president's needs it indicated that Carter was not doing so well with the Israelis. Mondale had a strong relationship with them and they trusted him more than the president.<br />
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<b>Pence's Play</b><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGbeQKq6_NEM_3_LmxK63hLjA-y0nstzWp9qGwRPPzxOV7PMYdVCO_7VsqxBIpLifnlmJHmddXg8KC_jgxjTtZwfXd4vEJFSngi_J8QZtkCGWsN35LDqpqPF_29SkkTJ3hdXsowi-9Qg/s1600/DHXdLo_UQAACtdq.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="728" data-original-width="992" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGbeQKq6_NEM_3_LmxK63hLjA-y0nstzWp9qGwRPPzxOV7PMYdVCO_7VsqxBIpLifnlmJHmddXg8KC_jgxjTtZwfXd4vEJFSngi_J8QZtkCGWsN35LDqpqPF_29SkkTJ3hdXsowi-9Qg/s320/DHXdLo_UQAACtdq.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Pence abroad: Chile seems cool compared to DC now</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
And that is a good place to begin. The Vice President has just cut short a trip to South America. It does not appear that the president summoned him. What was the point of his change in plans.<br />
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Charlottesville was a terrible thing, but extremists have marched before and sadly will again. The violence and death was truly, truly awful. Is it a national crisis on the scale of Hurricane Katrina? JUST TO BE CLEAR - I HATE NAZIS AS MUCH AS ANYONE! But in this case I'm writing from the head, not the heart (which is sick and sad right now.)<br />
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A president saying the appropriate things would have made this a smaller and shorter story - and frankly could have had a salutary affect that we could have really used. It was the president's failure to do so that has made this a crisis.<br />
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When Presidents are in political trouble of their own making, the vice president can travel and avoid the cross-hairs. So what were Pence's calculations? What was he thinking?<br />
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Does he believe he can talk sense to the president and help the administration work its way out of things? Are we close to a Constitutional crisis and Pence figures being nearby is smart? Did the White House staff beg him to return?<br />
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Tough to know, but interesting to consider.<br />
<br />
One important note is that for all of the leaks and reported intrigue - Pence does not appear to be a central player in this cut and thrust. He rarely appears in any form in the endless reporting. In fact the only hard exercise of vice presidential influence we've seen so far is that Pence persuaded Trump to fire Flynn. This works to Pence's favor - since Flynn was a nightmare politically, professionally, and personally. But it also indicates that just maybe the President listens to Pence. After all, Flynn was deeply loyal to Trump and vice-versa. Trump's efforts to protect Flynn, as much as anything, have endangered his presidency.<br />
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This is a strong indicator that Pence thinks, or people in the White House think, that the Vice President can help put it out the self-igniting dumpster fire that is this administration.<br />
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Can he? I doubt it.<br />
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<b>Pence on the Fence</b><br />
Like most politicians, he tries to have it both ways, and has done so effectively. <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/16/mike-pence-supports-trump-charlottesville-241708">He condemned neo-Nazis (not a hard call really) while also saying he supports the president</a>. His <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/08/15/remarks-vice-president-pence-argentine-and-latin-american-business">statement in Argentina</a> on Venezuela was a perfect example:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "source sans pro" , , "helvetica neue light" , "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , "nimbus sans l" , sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">As President Trump said just a few days ago, “We have many options for Venezuela.”</span></blockquote>
The Vice President elided the ludicrous and counterproductive Presidential statement that we may have military options in Venezuela, but still cited and supported the president.<br />
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Say what you will about Pence, he's pretty good at walking this fine line.<br />
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Stay tuned.Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-28879691891103920352017-07-31T07:42:00.001-04:002017-08-01T18:46:38.000-04:00Historical Perspective On Gen. Kelly's Prospects as White House Chief of Staff (UPDATED)<i>I wrote this yesterday morning, before Kelly's first day on the job as White House chief of staff. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/08/01/daily-202-john-kelly-proves-he-can-manage-up-on-his-first-day-as-chief-of-staff/597fdfab30fb045fdaef1031/?utm_term=.5cafada1896f">His opening move, firing the grossly inappropriate Anthony Scaramucci, was a good one. He has also begun reaching out to Democrats in Congress.</a> Kelly does have significant experience there, but I'm still not certain that - as able as Kelly is - if he has sufficient political experience to pull of this role. But I believe some bigger factors, enumerated below, also will prevent him from being effective. Also, the continual controversies coming from this White House raise new challenges. Even Jim Baker (probably the greatest recent White House chief of staff - see below) would be challenged at this multiple scandal a day pace.</i><br />
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Any discussion of Kelly's appointment to be White House chief of staff should begin with the simple and true observation that General Kelly is an extraordinarily capable man. No one should ignore the depth of his talent and experience. But in considering his prospects - before considering the external factors - it is important to consider what the White House chief of staff does.<br />
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<b>What Does a White House Chief of Staff Do?</b><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Read this if you really want to know stuff!</td></tr>
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If you have time, read this <a href="http://www.chriswhipple.net/">excellent book by Chris Whipple</a> - or at least this <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/07/31/john-kellys-greatest-challenge-now-is-without-question-trump-himself-expert-says/?utm_term=.e072fd5a004e">interview</a>. But, the summary would be that the chief of staff tries to make the White House (and to some extent the government as a whole) work for the president. Note the lower case w - not work as in be employees of, but rather organize complex institutions in a way that serves the president's decision-making needs and then carry out the president's priorities.<br />
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One critical need is information. The chief of staff has to ensure that essential information reaches the president and just as critically, presidential time and energy are not spent on things that do not require the president's attention. The national security advisor manages the information flow in national security issues, the chief of staff manages it on everything else (and usually has a hand in national security issues as well.) Just to be clear, managing the information flow does not mean withholding information from the president (if there is something the president needs and is not getting - they will find it.)<br />
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The CoS has to coordinate White House operations. The single most valuable thing in the White House is the president's time. There is usually a deputy CoS in charge of scheduling, because it is important that the president's time support the president's priorities. Speeches and appearances should be linked to policy initiatives, contacts should be with critical interest groups, etc.<br />
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The CoS has to ensure that the parts of the White House are working effectively and working in synch. Are the Communications office and Legislative affairs coordinating to ensure the messaging around a new initiative is timely? Are potential appointees being vetted properly? Are executive agencies carrying out the president's mission (if not, why not?)<br />
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This barely scratches the surface of the nuts and bolts of the CoS role. But rather than diving in deeper, let's instead turn to comparisons to Kelly.<br />
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<b>Ghosts of CoS Past</b><br />
In recent history (that is my memory) there are three cases of a chief of staff being brought in to stabilize a White House in deep trouble. Howard Baker was brought into the Reagan White House after Iran-Contra, in early 1987. Leon Panetta became CoS in the Clinton White House in mind-1994. Josh Bolten became CoS for Bush 43 in 2006.<br />
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Baker had been Senate Majority Leader and had served three terms in the Senate. Panetta had previously been OMB chief (which is a lesser known but <i>hugely</i> powerful position). He had also been in the House for 16 years. Bolten had been OMB chief, deputy CoS for policy, and White House director of legislative affairs.<br />
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Let's add two more well-regarded White House chiefs of staff - Rahm Emanuel (Obama's first chief of staff) and Jim Baker (Reagan's first chief of staff.) Emanuel had previously been a White House staffer (and top fund-raiser) and then served three terms in the House of Representatives.<br />
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Looking over these four, effective White House chiefs of staff, it looks like there are two basic paths to the position. Capitol Hill experience, White House experience, or some combination thereof.<br />
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I'm not sure this bodes well for Kelly as CoS. There is little question he has the expertise for the form of the job - establishing clear lines of authority and overseeing a large complex operation. But does he have the appropriate knowledge of the substance?<br />
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The substance of the White House chief of staff role is politics which is the art of the possible. Effective political action requires balancing policy preferences with political realities. This problem space has multiple dimensions. Understanding policy options requires a broad-based general knowledge. Politicians may have a few issue in which they have deep expertise, but they cannot master every issue. They do need to know enough to be smart consumers of policy. General Kelly will, undoubtedly, have vast experience with many critical policy issues, but these represent a fraction of the issues a president must address. Does he have significant experience with the federal budget, natural resources and the environment, energy policy, urban affairs, or judicial appointments?<br />
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The politics side of the equation is also challenging. The core issue is congressional relations. Congress is not dictated to, it is bargained with. Politicians need to balance a range of priorities. No question that General Kelly knows the form - that is establishing priorities and adapting them to the situation (he was a battlefield commander.) But the substance is in question, there is a huge amount of tacit knowledge about the needs of political actors and the institutions through which they operate (like the arcane Senate procedures we all recently witnessed.)<br />
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In fairness, Kelly was the military assistant to SecDefs Gates and Panetta (him again... hmmm.) He also served in the Marine Corps legislative liaison office and was the Legislative Assistant to the Commandant. So he is not a political amatuer, but his political experience is through a pretty specific lens.<br />
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<b>What about Baker?</b><br />
I haven't talked about Jim Baker, Reagan's legendary chief of staff. On paper, Baker was not particularly well qualified. He had been an Undersecretary at the Department of Commerce in the Ford administration and run political campaigns in Texas. It is worth noting that Baker so impressed Ford that he ended up running Ford's campaign. He then impressed the Reagans (particularly Nancy) so much that they made him chief of staff, despite his being an ally of their former rival, George H.W. Bush. So resume is not a definite indicator. Baker was exceptional regardless of his previous experience.<br />
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So it is entirely possible that Kelly will prove excellent in the chief of staff role (we can certainly hope so.) And Kelly's own distinguished career is certainly a mark of great ability.<br />
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<b>Elephant in the Room</b><br />
In their <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Shadow-Oval-Office-Presidents-Served/dp/1416553207">masterful book on the National Security Advisor, I.M. Destler and Ivo Daalder</a> cited an old Washington hand who observed that National Security Advisors should choose their presidents wisely. I've made the same observation about vice presidents, and it also applies to the White House chief of staff.<br />
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Other CoSs have struggled with presidential discipline issues. Reagan and Clinton come to mind. But, fundamentally they were political actors who understood the game and what the key outputs were. If they wanted a policy to be enacted, they would need to take certain steps.<br />
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If <i>anyone</i> can... um... persuade the president to lay off the Twitter, it is General Kelly. But it is not clear that anyone can do this. The current occupant of the Oval Office does not appear to see his actions in a systematic context contributing to definable political outputs. Can Kelly help him set priorities both in outputs and then in defining the actions to produce those outputs (say in legislation passed.) Time will tell...<br />
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<b>The Dying Elephant in the Room</b><br />
My regular readers (you out there...) know that I am a big fan of <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2010/12/reviewing-presidential-leadership-in.html">Steve Skowronek</a>'s work. At the core of his work is that presidents are much less the masters of their fate than we would like to believe and much more the product of their time. (So echoing what I wrote above) a president should choose their time to be president wisely.)<br />
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I'll write more about Trump in Presidential Time later (but here's my <a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2010/12/reviewing-presidential-leadership-in.html">overview</a>), but long and short is that the president is the type of president presiding over the collapse of a political order (last two presidents of this type were Carter and Hoover.) The GOP has dominated politics since 1981, but now the policy solutions that were successful in the early 1980s are no longer relevant. Carter and Hoover were, to a great extent, technocrats who promised to do government better. Trump, in his way, promised to do the same.<br />
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However, the thing about the Skowronek typology is that the collapse of the political order is not because of the president's competence (or lack thereof.) It is because the party is factionalized between groups committed to foundin<br />
g policies and groups that recognize those policies are no longer viable. We saw this dynamic play out in the health care repeal efforts where the group on the far right committed to absolute repeal out of fealty to the principle of small government and the centrist group, which saw repeal as deeply unpopular in their district, were each large enough and vocal enough to prevent effective policy-making.<br />
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So regardless of the chief of staff or the president, it may be very hard for <i>anyone - even a Lincoln - to govern effectively.</i><br />
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<b>Pence's Play</b><br />
Did you really think I would write all of this without mentioning the vice president?<br />
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We don't know much about what VP Pence has been up to. He's been outwardly loyal, traveling a bit, and liaising with Congress. Typical and important VP stuff. I'll write more about him later as well.<br />
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But vacuums in the White House are good places for VPs to play. They don't want to be fighting for power with other players, but if no one has a good handle on an issue or problem, the VP can fill the vacuum. If Kelly, will running a tight ship, needs help balancing policy and process, Pence is well placed to assist. (<a href="https://warontherocks.com/2016/10/vice-presidents-and-foreign-policy-a-forward-looking-review-of-the-record/">I wrote before that Pence would be a backstop to the chief of staff</a>.) It is also worth noting that the White House director of legislative affairs, Marc Short, was a <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/who-is-marc-short-trump-legislative-liaison-233710">Hill staffer to Congressman Pence</a>.<br />
<br />Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-10812722388948735902017-05-28T22:06:00.000-04:002017-06-11T15:39:56.950-04:00Vice Presidents and Technology Policy 1: Observations from the late Zbigniew BrzezinskiYour humble blogger has, at his day job, been writing a bit on technology policy. Not as much here, but <a href="http://robots.law.miami.edu/2016/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Mannes_RobotGovernanceFinal.pdf">out in the world</a>. Naturally, I wanted to bring this together with my first love - vice presidents.<br />
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The obvious thing to write about would be actual vice presidential roles in making policy regarding technology. There are some examples, most notably Al Gore, but also Quayle (who ran a commission on the space program) and maybe some others. I could stretch and include Biden overseeing the cancer initiative. That'll be the second in the series.<br />
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But first I wanted to talk about broader lessons from the vice presidents and today is a fitting day for it, since we have just <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/zbigniew-brzezinski-foreign-policy-intellectual-who-served-as-carters-national-security-adviser-dies-at-89/2017/05/26/84cf5d5c-3f42-11e7-adba-394ee67a7582_story.html?utm_term=.b577d5b349fe">lost Carter's national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski</a>, who inadvertently inspired this post. Zbig was kind enough to allow me to interview him for my dissertation, for which I am very grateful (I was nervous as hell - although there was no need, he was very nice.) It was over the phone, so I didn't get to meet him. Still...<br />
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In his v<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Power-Principle-National-Security-1977-1981/dp/0374518777/ref=la_B001IGOFO2_1_7?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1496002490&sr=1-7&refinements=p_82%3AB001IGOFO2">ery candid memoir</a> Zbig wrote of the vice president:<br />
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Mondale's most important contribution was his political judgment. He was a vital political barometer for the president, and Carter respected his opinion on the domestic implications of foreign policy decisions....In general, Carter rarely, if ever though of foreign policy in terms of domestic politics, while Mondale rarely, if ever, thought of it otherwise....Fritz, in effect, provided a needed corrective.</blockquote>
Carter was our last engineer president (and his predecessor as a professional engineer turned president was Herbert Hoover.) Carter's instinct on every issue was to find the optimal solution and then worry about the politics. Mondale pushed for incorporating politics into the process from the beginning because it would ultimately result in better policy. In the Carter administration this was an uphill struggle. Mondale told his biographer, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Democrats-Dilemma-Steven-M-Gillon/dp/0231076312">Steve Gillon</a>,<br />
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Carter's anti-political attitudes used to drive me nuts because you couldn't get him to grapple with a political problem. He thought politics was sinful. The worst thing you could say to Carter if you wanted him to do something was that it was politically the best thing to do.</blockquote>
There were innumerable examples of Mondale's political acumen shaping administration policy, but one great example highlighting the differing perspective between the technocrat engineer and the politician was something called MX Racetrack. It was a plan to put missiles on trains that ran in giant circles. Defense analysts and Carter liked the plan which would make it nearly impossible for the Soviets to be sure they had destroyed all of the U.S. missiles. Mondale was appalled, they had given no serious consideration to the politics. Communities did not want to be in nuclear crosshairs and environmentalists would hate it. Reagan (not exactly a missile hating dove) ultimately killed the program.<br />
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All well and good - a tribute to Zbig and little vice presidents talk - but what does this have to do with technology policy?<br />
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I was just at the <a href="https://campus.asu.edu/content/fifth-annual-conference-governance-emerging-technologies-law-policy-ethics">Governing Emerging Technologies Conference</a>, in which one of the central issues discussed was how to ensure technology is developed that aligns with people's values. This is a complex multifaceted issue. (More on this elsewhere.) But, the people who build technology - primarily engineers - are not always equipped to grapple with these questions. Not to say, in anyway, that engineers are not moral. Rather, that addressing these kinds of questions requires a different analytical toolkit - how do you even determine what is in the bounds of public tolerance and acceptance? How would you query the appropriate communities? What are the central issues?<br />
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This is not just values. It is also process. There have been far too many cases of experts building IT systems that did not in practice serve the needs of the organization using them. If you do not consider people and their needs and feelings from the beginning, the product in the end will be flawed.<br />
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Just as Mondale urged Carter to build politics into the process from the beginning, as we develop new technologies we should build these questions - which span social science and philosophy - into the process from the beginning.<br />
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<br />Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26892914337322566.post-4345713633755838682017-04-10T15:30:00.003-04:002017-04-10T15:35:06.508-04:00Syria Strike Picture Speaks 1000 Words - Integrating National Security & Economic Decision-makingAs a student of the national security and White House decision-making process, your faithful blogger has been overwhelmed by the doings of the current administration. In fact, I considered doing a post simply summarizing the different things I would like to write about - although I believe that is called a Tweetstorm. Even the discussion of the <strike>princeling</strike> son-in-law's <strike>ridiculous</strike> almost v<a href="http://veepcritique.blogspot.com/2017/04/is-jared-kushner-de-facto-vp.html">ice presidential role</a> deserves another post - after a prominent (and <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/04/trump-white-house-family-business-215002">generally sensible) person defended it</a>. (If you need a response to that defense, <a href="http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2017/04/let-aspires-station-not-one-medici-favour-liberty-popular-power">here is an excellent one</a>.)<br />
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But then I looked at the picture of Trump's ExCom during the Syria strikes and something (not a Tomahawk missile) struck me. Kremlinologists long relied on pictures of the Soviet leaders to derive power. This open source effort has expanded exponentially with the Internet, allowing deep insight to closed regimes like Pyongyang. It can even serve a purpose here, in our open society, and yours truly has not hesitated to dabble in it to highlight the expanded role of the vice president.</div>
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Going around the table we have on the far side of the table, facing us: Deputy Chief of Staff Joe Hagin, Jared Kushner, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, and then the President. Sitting behind them in the corner is Press Secretary Sean Spicer. Continuing around the table is Secretary of State Tillerson, National Security Advisor McMaster, and Chief of Staff Reince Priebus. Just behind McMaster is National Economic Council chief Gary Cohn and next to him is the Deputy National Security Advisor Dina Powell. Next to Powell are Michael Anton, Assistant to the President for Strategic Affairs and Senior Advisor Stephen Miller, and chief strategist Steve Bannon. The VP, SecDef, and CJCS are all there by video-conference.</div>
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The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Situation_Room_(photograph)">famous picture from the OBL raid</a> contained primarily people with hard national security roles (DNI, various advisors on terrorism from the national security council, as well as the relevant national security principles.)</div>
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The stark differences are:</div>
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<li>Far greater presence of political advisors and staffers. Of course the Chief of Staff belongs in the room, but also the Deputy CoS and the Press Secretary? Bannon and his team have a corner and the Jared-of-all-trades even has a seat at the table.</li>
<li>The absence of working-level national security staffers is striking. This may reflect the ongoing disconnect between the administration and the bureaucracy.</li>
<li>The economics team is also there in the Treasury Secretary, the Commerce Secretary, and the chair the National Economics Council. I am not <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39486617">original</a> in this observation - but I have a lot more to say about it.</li>
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<b>The Good</b></div>
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Putting aside thoughts on and preferences for specific players, what can we know about the broader structure of decision-making here.</div>
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Let's start with the good. While some have criticized the inclusion of the economic team in the strike video, I'm not sure this is a bad thing. In international affairs there is often a divide between the money people and the guns people. This can lead to <a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2015/05/foreign-policy-of-diogenes-more.html">real discontinuities</a>. <a href="http://terrorwonk.blogspot.com/2012/04/gore-chernomyrdin-commission-case-study.html">Economic disturbances can cause security problems</a>, while military actions can create economic problems. Yet the practitioners barely understand one another. More closely integrating these decision streams could bring better policy.</div>
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<b>The Bad</b></div>
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The bad is the large number of political types in the room. Everyone in the White House is a political, it is the nature of the beast. But past presidents have tried to - at least somewhat - section off the policy/national security types from the political staffers. There are innumerable stories of presidents (and other politicians) telling policy experts, "Tell me what to do and leave the politics to me!"</div>
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Besides the costs of appearing to make national security decisions on blatant political grounds, the reality is that the national security staffers don't give very good political advice and the political advisors don't give very good national security advice. The chief of staff plays a key role in bringing these sides together. Perhaps some other political advisors and staffers might participate, but in this care there were six politicals besides the CoS.</div>
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<b>And the Ugly</b></div>
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If the attendees of this meeting were part of a carefully considered plan, great. But the reality is that it appears to have been haphazard, shaped as much by who was around. This is also highlighted by the lack of national security staffers present. Without them, you may not have the necessary people with the working knowledge of the issues. The administration has not established an orderly process and is still being run by personal whim.</div>
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One can speculate as to who is up and who is down. Bannon and his crew were in the back, while new Deputy National Security Advisor Dina Powell was closer in. That Powell is also a protege of Gary Cohn could be a good sign for further integration of security and economic issues.</div>
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It cannot be said often enough, good process does not guarantee good policy. But lousy process makes it really hard to get anything but lousy policy. </div>
Aaron Manneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12688396444883511392noreply@blogger.com0